Met Dept retains below-normal outlook for monsoon

The South-West monsoon may be below normal. The India Meteorological Department has retained the outlook for the monsoon (June to September) at 93 per cent of the average.

“Without sounding alarmist or wishing you to make a big media hype of it, we just wish to share with you that the South-West monsoon this year may be less than normal,” said Jitendra Singh, Minister of State for Science and Technology, announcing the second long-range forecasts for the monsoon on Monday in New Delhi.

“Implications, of course, would happen to a larger or smaller extent and we will accordingly prepare ourselves to handle it — whether it is transplantation of crops or other related issues.”

After being told in April about a below-normal monsoon, the Cabinet Secretary had started making plans to deal with the situation, the Minister said.

“Meetings have been held with various Ministries. Whatever plans have to be made for below normal monsoon, we have already started doing that,” he added.

When asked whether the El Nino could cause drought, a Met official replied that during El Nino, rains are below normal. Even during the best of monsoons, some districts in the country face drought.

As expected, north-west India may end up with the largest deficit (of up to 15 per cent) while central India will have a shortfall of 6 per cent and the peninsula, 7 per cent. North-east India will have the least deficit of one per cent.

All rain figures forecast assume a statistical error of margin ranging from 4 to 0 per cent, according to the Met Department.

Recorded rainfall for the country as whole during June 1 to 8 is in deficit by a whopping 44 per cent. Central India had the highest deficit of 71 per cent, followed by north-west (50 per cent), north-east (44 per cent), and peninsula (17 per cent).

The Met expected the country as a whole to have a deficit of 7 per cent in July and 4 per cent in August.