After remaining hot for most of the year, base metals — copper, zinc, aluminium, and lead — are likely to stabilise over the next 1-2 quarters before heading south in the later part of 2022, experts noted, indicating a bearish price sentiment for the metals for the next year.
Citing factors such as global and US inflation worries, a rate-hike cycle being adopted by central banks world over and the slowing down of the industrial activities from the 2020 peak on account of sustained higher prices, experts believe that the metal prices would face a downward pressure globally.
Addressing a webinar on Base Metals Market Outlook 2022, organised by
Technical outlook
Gurumurthy K, Chief Research Analyst,
“And we will see copper prices falling from the second quarter of next year to $7,500Since we see copper prices coming down, it could mean global slowdown is on the way,” said Gurumurthy, pointing at sharply lower prices for aluminium at $2,000 by early 2023, from the current levels of $2,600. For zinc and lead, he said there would be a temporary upside.
Mayur Karmarkar, Managing Director, International Copper Alliance India, highlighted the demand drivers for base metals such as faster economic growth, increasing urbanisation, rising disposable income, industrialisation and increasing electrification.
Outlining the demand for copper in the coming decade, Karmarkar said: “ As India grows, its metal usage is also likely to grow faster. Demand scenario for the decade is estimated at an average growth rate of 8-9 per cent. And we see copper demand to cross 2.2 million tonnes by 2030.”
Subramani Ra Mancombu, Commodities Editor, BusinessLine , moderated the webinar, while G Chandrashekhar, policy commentator and commodity markets specialist, presented the closing remarks.