After rising to a two-year high last month, global tin prices will likely increase over the next few months on tight supplies and increasing demand, analysts have said. “Although a new mining and smelting licensing system was introduced last year, Indonesian exports are expected to drop considerably in January due to New Year delays to export permits. Smelters in China continue to report tightness in feedstock availability, prompting many to take longer production breaks during the Spring Festival,” said Tom Langston, Senior Research Analyst with the International Tin Association (ITA).
Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said mining at Myanmar’s Man Maw mine, accounting for almost all of the country’s tin supply, has not been reinstated yet despite the ban being lifted for all other mining operations from January 4, 2024.
Curbs on mining
“At this point, there is no certainty whether operations would restart. On the other hand, Indonesian tin exports remain constrained after having faced significant disruption in 2024,” it said.
Data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade showed that its refined tin exports in December 2024 amounted to 4,685.28 tonnes, down 21.6 per cent year-on-year, BMI said.
The Trading Economics website said lower-than-expected activity in major tin mines in Myanmar’s Wa State kept ore availability for Chinese smelters at low levels in recent periods. This challenged earlier expectations that tin output would recover in the region during the latter part of 2024, despite political instability in Myanmar. “Output was also lower in Indonesia due to restrictions on mining quotas,” it said.
Price outlook
Langston said tin prices started the year on a strong footing, with LME 3-month price up 3.5 per cent in January. BMI said it was maintaining its annual average tin price forecast for 2025 at $32,000/tonne.
Currently, the three-month contract for tin on the London Metal Exchange is ruling at $30,450 a tonne, up over the two-year high of $32,400. For cash, it was traded at $30,280.
BMI prices forecast is because of rising demand meeting a continued supply squeeze. It said it expects resilience in 2025 for demand. “We believe the global refined tin consumption growth has come in at 2.3 per cent year-on-year in 2024 and forecast growth of 3 per cent year-on-year in 2025,” it said.
Semiconductor offtake
Over half of refined tin consumption stems from the semiconductor industry, where tin is used as an electronics solder. “We expect global semiconductor sales to continue to rise, and remain historically high,” the research agency said
In 2025, given the escalating US-China tech tensions, the Communist government will continue to invest in domestic chip manufacturing industry to alleviate its reliance on foreign sources of integrated circuits, BMI said.
Langston cautioned that after Donald Trump took over as the US President, uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to strongly influence the outlook of base metal markets.
Bullish long term
Trading Economics said the outlook for manufacturing out of top consumer China was mixed. The latest credit aggregates showed that the economy increased investment following the series of monetary stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China. “Still, the latest manufacturing PMI unexpectedly pointed to a contraction in activity,” it said.
BMI said global tin stocks have started to fall in recent months, especially stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
In the long term, prices will continue on an upward trend as demand remains robust and the market remains tight, the research agency said.