Shares of BSE Ltd tanked 6 per cent before closing little over 1 per cent lower on Wednesday after investors observed the shift in futures and options (F&O) expiry from Tuesdays to Thursdays which could lead to loss of market share.
Brokerages took divergent calls. Motilal Oswal has downgraded the stock to neutral from buy at a one-year target price of ₹2,300.
Motilal noted that the F&O expiry shift will lead to a loss in market share for BSE in terms of premium turnover, which stood at 22.6 per cent in May 2025.
At present, BSE has market share of 8 per cent on Wednesday and Thursday, 21 per cent on Friday, 24 per cent on Monday and 38 per cent on Tuesday.
“Overlaying the current trends on the day-wise share in volumes for the week, we expect a market share loss of 350-400bp for BSE.,” it said.
Motilal has also lowered premium average daily turnover (ADTO) estimates for FY26 and FY27 to ₹13,700 crore and ₹15,700 crore, respectively, which translates into a 9 per cent and 12 per cent cut in earnings estimates for the said period.
Global brokerage Goldman Sachs reiterated its view that BSE could lose 3 percentage points of market share within index options premium in near-term. The brokerage assigned neutral rating at ₹2,430 target price and has trimmed BSE’s FY26 EPS estimates by per cent.
Jefferies has maintained hold rating at ₹2,900 target price per share, citing 5-10 per cent impact on volumes in the near-term. BSE’s ability to build liquidity in longer-term contracts can offset this impact, it added.
Meanwhile, UBS retained buy call at ₹2,633 on the stock. The brokerage expects the change in expiry can impact 15 per cent of volumes on loss of one trading day for BSE.
BSE shares ended 1.19 per cent lower at ₹2,632.60 on the NSE, hitting a low of ₹2,500. The stock opened 5 per cent lower at ₹2,525 from the previous close of ₹2,664.40.