Markets opened on a subdued note on Monday, June 30, marking the final trading day of the first half of FY25, with the Sensex opening at 84,027.33, slightly lower than its previous close of 84,058.90, and slipping further to 83,814.79 at 9.50 am, down 244.11 points or 0.29 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 25,661.65 compared to its previous close of 25,637.80, but eased to 25,572.80 at 9:50 am, down 65 points or 0.25 per cent, despite positive global cues.
The weak opening comes after robust bullish momentum over the last four trading sessions, with market experts warning of overbought technical indicators. “Today, June 30th, marks the final day of the first half of the calendar year FY25, poised for potential spotlight on Dalal Street due to anticipated window-dressing activities,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd. “Expect a choppy session with moderate gains, contrasting the fervor of previous days.”
Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50, Jio Financial Services led with a 1.61 per cent jump to ₹328.65, followed by infrastructure major Larsen & Toubro which gained 0.92 per cent to ₹3,713.10. State Bank of India rose 0.86 per cent to ₹812.30, while Eicher Motors added 0.78 per cent to ₹263.90 and Shriram Finance climbed 0.65 per cent to ₹704.50.
On the losing side, Hero MotoCorp faced the steepest decline, falling 2.00 per cent to ₹4,233.70. Tata Consumer Products dropped 1.49 per cent to ₹1,107.60, while Dr Reddy’s Laboratories declined 1.30 per cent to ₹1,284.10. Kotak Mahindra Bank fell 1.23 per cent to ₹2,180.70 and NTPC slipped 1.18 per cent to ₹334.30.
The market sentiment remained positive despite the weak opening, buoyed by substantial foreign institutional investor net investments on Friday and ongoing US-India trade negotiations set to culminate before the July 9 deadline. “Positive market sentiment is buoyed by Friday’s substantial FII net investments and ongoing US-India trade negotiations,” Tapse added.
Technical analysts remain optimistic about the market’s trajectory. “Technically speaking, and like we have been highlighting, a trending move post the over month-long consolidation is already underway,” said Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities. “We are now testing an important upside hurdle between 25,640 and 25,740, followed by a rising channel peak around 25,800.”
The commodities market witnessed significant volatility, with crude oil futures trading lower amid easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. September Brent oil futures were at $66.65, down 0.22 per cent, while August WTI crude fell 0.41 per cent to $65.25. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, July crude oil futures traded at ₹5,586, down 0.27 per cent from the previous close.
“Crude oil remained highly volatile and closed the week with significant losses—the worst weekly performance this year,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd. “De-escalation in the Middle East conflict and OPEC+’s decision to ramp up output weighed heavily on prices.”
The precious metals sector faced pressure as gold and silver witnessed sharp corrections. “Precious metals witnessed a sharp correction amid geopolitical easing and global market optimism,” Kalantri noted. “The ceasefire between Israel and Iran deflated the war risk premium, triggering a pullback in gold and silver prices.”
Global markets provided a supportive backdrop with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new record highs. “With S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new record highs and most other markets in bullish mode, the market construct looks positive,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. “Significant contributors to the rally in India in recent days have been largecaps like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, RIL and L&T which have seen accumulation by institutions.”
Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll report scheduled for July 3, which could influence global market sentiment. The weakness in the dollar index continues to support foreign institutional investor inflows, while retail optimism maintains flows into domestic funds.
Despite the current market elevation, investment strategists advise caution. “It makes sense to remain invested in this bull market but making fresh investments at elevated valuations would be risky,” Vijayakumar cautioned, highlighting the delicate balance between opportunity and risk in the current market environment.