K V Kurmanath
Hyderabad, January 19
Sutra, the mathematical model developed by Hyderabad, has predicted that Covid cases in the country will peak on January 23, with a daily number of cases standing at about 3-3.5 lakh.
The institute, in its maiden prediction on December 10, had predicted that the country would see a peak in cases on January 27. “At that time, we based our prediction based on the numbers emerging out of South Africa. The immunity among the Indians is much higher than originally assumed,” M Vidyasagar, Distinguished Professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (Hyderabad), told BusinessLine.
Ever since it opened an updated Covid tracker on December 10, the institute has been updating the projection every 10-14 days. Mathematical models use the current data of cases to assess the situation and come out with a projection on how the growth trajectory would like.
On the latest predictions, released on January 19, the Sutra team said that some cities such as Mumbai and Kolkata have already seen cases peaking, while Andhra Pradesh will have to wait till January 30 to witness a peak in cases.
Incidentally, the positivity rate in Andhra Pradesh is about 25 per cent as it reported over 10,000 cases on Wednesday.
Asked whether there is a chance for a revival in the number of cases in cities that witnessed a peak, Vidyasagar said there was a little scope (for increase) as the ability of the infection will come down after reaching a peak. “Generally, the cases don’t go up after coming down,” he said.
Immunity loss
The latest report felt that the country might have lost immunity in the range of 20-230 per cent.
“It (loss of immunity) is the most critical factor in rise of Omicron cases. Vaccine immunity is almost completely bypassed,” it said.