The intensified (well-marked) low-pressure area is now sitting over Vidarbha, adjoining Telangana and South Chhattisgarh and will hold sway through the unfolding week.
It could also retain its strength and intensity to travel north and northeast ward from Telangana into Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh, bringing moderate to heavy rain.
This is contrary to the earlier forecasts that the system was bound for a north and northwesterly track and would head into West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa and South Gujarat.
This would make it difficult for a fresh cyclonic circulation in the east Bay of Bengal to venture anywhere close to the Indian coast, gather strength and become another low-pressure area. This is because no two rain-generating systems can prevail within a single monsoon system except under exceptional circumstances, usually taken to mean peak monsoon conditions.
If anything, the monsoon is in the fag end, and cannot be excepted to motivate itself to a peak other than what is already on display over Telangana and Maharashtra.
Last rain system
Given this, the prevailing well-marked 'low' would be the last South-West monsoon related system active over ground. But it may continue in the reckoning even after the cut-off date of September 30.
Any rain generated from it after September would be outside of the purview of the South-West monsoon and could get likely accounted for in the winter monsoon that follows.
This morning, India Met Department said that the South-West monsoon might not resume its much-delayed withdrawal from the fringes of West Rajasthan until the weekend.
The normal date for its withdrawal from the entire landmass, after covering North-West, East and North-East, Central and Peninsular India, is September 30.
Decidedly, this would be delayed, but the progress from Central India is expected to be swift, to give way for the winter monsoon, or the North-East monsoon, over the peninsula later in October.