The monsoon has covered entire Maharashtra and entered Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh over the West and Central India and Bihar in the East on Sunday as moisture-laden westerlies from the Arabian Sea and easterlies from the Bay of Bengal made common cause with a western disturbance reaching out across the border from Pakistan.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in a mid-day bulletin, said the monsoon has advanced into some parts of Gujarat; Dadra & Nagar Haveli; remaining parts of Maharashtra (including Mumbai); some parts of Madhya Pradesh; most parts of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand; and some more parts of Bihar.
Uttar Pradesh, next stop
The northern limit of the monsoon passes through Surat, Nandurbar, Betul, Seoni, Pendra Road, Ambikapur, Gaya and Patna. Seasonal rains may push into more parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar and some parts of East Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.
A cyclonic circulation (from an erstwhile low-pressure area from the Bay) currently over East Madhya Pradesh and an East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence over Central India drive the monsoon for now.
The IMD has said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall would continue over Maharashtra, Gujarat, and most parts of Central and East India for the next 4-5 days too.
Heavy rain for Central, East
This would be replete with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai); Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat; isolated heavy over South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Marathawada during the first three days.
Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls may continue to lash the North-East and adjoining East India during the course of the above-mentioned 4-5 days.
An extended outlook for June 19-21 said that fairly widespread to widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated intense rainfall activity is likely over the North-East and adjoining East India and along the West Coast; scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershower over the islands; while it would be isolated to scattered rain/thundershower over parts of Central India, North India and the South.
Spell over South
The US Climate Prediction Centre agreed with the IMD’s outlook for enhance monsoon for the fortnight ending June 25 saying that the prevailing broad cyclonic circulation (over East Madhya Pradesh) drives its forecast of above average rainfall during this period. Most model guidance had signalled at only a remote chance of intensification of the system.
The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction sees East and East-Central India coming under a sheet of heavy to very heavy rain during June 22-30. But the monsoon may not still not be able to cover parts of North Gujarat, entire Rajasthan, Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir. The Climate Forecast System hints that the peninsula may dry up gradually during June 23-July 2 before priming for a heavy spell from July 3.