Confidence level in the prospects of a rain-friendly low-pressure area spinning up in the North Bay of Bengal is ebbing.
Weather models have failed to detect positive signals from a forerunner cyclonic circulation currently hovering in the region.
All that monsoon system can show up now is a trough running down from North Uttar Pradesh into East-central Bay.
In ideal conditions, a ‘low’ developing in the Bay should get embedded into this trough and commandeer the moisture flows from the sea to rain it down over land.
It should then take a westward or west-northwestward track to ferry the rain into the interior and ensure its equitable distribution before it dies out over the West or Northwest.
But that ‘low’ has not still graduated from the primitive stage of a cyclonic circulation with only’ so much’ capacity to influence the monsoon.
This is why the rains are still confined mostly under its immediate footprint – East and Northeast India.
Longer wait
And this is why the expected minor revival in monsoon can produce only so much rain that can extend not beyond East-Central India.
Northwest India, West and adjoining West-central India will need to wait even longer for any meaningful rain to come about even as the monsoon enters July.
Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh are the affected areas.
Model forecasts, however, indicate some rain for coastal areas of South and West Gujarat as the monsoon stirs up briefly during the next couple of days.
Thundershowers are in order for parts of entire Northwest and adjoining East India thanks to feeble southeasterly winds from the Bay and a passing western disturbance across Jammu and Kashmir.