Finding a replacement for Gopinath Munde is as urgent as it is complicated for the BJP in Maharashtra, where Assembly elections are to be held as early as October this year.
Munde, who was killed in an accident in Delhi on Tuesday, was to lead the BJP’s campaign in the upcoming polls. His induction in the Union Cabinet as Minister of Rural Development, Panchayati Raj and Drinking Water and Sanitation was largely seen as a run-up to his projection as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate in Maharashtra.
His sudden demise leaves the BJP with limited options with former party president Nitin Gadkari as the only contender with the requisite stature for the job Munde was to be assigned. However, Gadkari is a Brahmin in a State dominated by Maratha-OBC politics.
To complicate matters more, his not-so-covert association with Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackrey has ruffled feathers in the Shiv Sena camp.
This does not help at a time when the BJP is hoping to ride the momentum of its spectacular performance in the Lok Sabha, winning 23 of the 24 seats it contested in the State to demand a change in the seat-sharing agreement with the Sena.
The BJP had contested 119 seats in the 2009 Assembly elections while Shiv Sena had a larger share, ie 169 seats.
Sena’s move While the BJP eyes a bigger share, Sena has unilaterally named Uddhav Thackeray as CM candidate for the alliance. Though Uddhav himself did not pitch for his candidature, the announcements by various senior Sena leaders were doubtless influenced by Raj Thackeray’s declaration that he will be the CM candidate for his party.
Also, it is an indication to the BJP that Sena will stonewall any attempts to reverse its stature as the dominant partner in the alliance.
Among other contenders to replace Munde at such a critical time are Leader of Opposition in the Maharashtra Legislative Council Vinod Tawde, the State BJP chief Devendra Fadnavis and Leader of Opposition in the State Assembly Eknath Khadse.
“The problem is that none of them have the kind of stature Munde had. Only Gadkari could have filled his shoes had he fitted the caste profile. Fadnavis has the same problem — he too is a Brahmin. With any of these two leaders, the BJP runs the risk of being labelled a Brahmin party and drive away the OBCs, SCs, STs and other communities that the Mahayuti (grand alliance) had collected,” said a BJP source.
Community matters Tawde, on the other hand, belongs to the powerful Maratha community which constitutes roughly over 35 per cent of the population.
The only issue is he has never been elected to the Assembly and lacks the kind of profile or popularity that the BJP needs to drive a bargain with the Sena and ride the Modi wave.
Khadse, a powerful leader from the Leva Patil community, was Finance Minister in the Sena-BJP government and represents the Bodwad-Muktainagar constituency in Jalgaon, northern Maharashtra. He is an OBC leader with a mass base and is considered close to Gadkari.
“Actually, everything now boils down to Narendra Modi. We do not fool ourselves by imagining that we won in Maharashtra because the party was very popular. It was a vote for Modi and it is the same factor that will work in the Assembly elections as well. We believe anyone who gets his blessings will do well in Maharashtra. The Lok Sabha momentum will sustain in the Assembly as well,” said a BJP leader.