The conviction of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa in the disproportionate assets case and her consequent disqualification from holding any elected office for the next ten years may well put a dent in Tamil Nadu’s growth story, itself a remarkably successful blend of economic as well as social development.
Between 2005-06 and 2012-13, Tamil Nadu logged a GDP growth rate of 10.3 per cent, one of the highest in the country among States. The per capita income (at constant prices) during this period also grew at 11.7 per cent, the second-highest in the country and higher than Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Tamil Nadu is also among the top two or three States on most human development indicators, whether it is access to safe drinking water (92.5 per cent of the population), infant mortality (22 deaths per 1,000 live births), retention of children in schools between the ages of 6-14 years (90 per cent), or literacy in this age group (over 99 per cent).
What’s more, while the much touted Gujarat model has a better rate of change on a few indicators, Tamil Nadu’s impressively high rates have come on a high base, making it even more remarkable. One of the key factors contributing to this has certainly been a stable government and focused direction from the political leadership.
With the State’s popularly elected chief minister in prison, there will certainly be a question mark over both the stability and leadership issues.
For Jayalalithaa, the options are limited as far as returning to active politics is concerned. While she would be challenging the verdict of the Sessions court in the High Court, she could separately appeal for suspension of the sentence till such time as her appeal is settled in higher courts.
However, the process is bound to take time. After all, the trial in the case which resulted in her conviction itself took 18 long years to wind its way to a conclusion. In fact, her case underscores the need to fast-track cases against politicians, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi had suggested during his election campaign.
Regardless of the charges against her, Jayalalithaa was — and remains — an important public figure, and a popularly elected political leader with a huge mandate.
Eighteen years is too long a time to have the sword of disqualification hanging over her — or indeed, any political leader’s — head.
In fact, with almost a third of the ministers in the Union Council of Ministers facing charges of one kind or the other, the need to have clarity on their standing — whether guilty or innocent — has become even more pressing.
In the interim, it will up her chosen successor, O Panneerselvam, to ensure that the process of governance continues, and decision-making does not get paralysed because he is perceived as a mere ‘remote control’ robot, with the controls in Jayalalithaa’s hands. Even if one were to concede this for the sake of argument, practical execution is bound to be hampered.
Further, unlike the late Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray (who famously coined the term ‘remote control’), or former Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Prasad, she will not be able to enjoy relatively unfettered access to the object of control. She will be lodged in a Karnataka prison, and not in her home State.
The challenges facing her party are more severe. The AIADMK is essentially a single-leader party. It owes its remarkable electoral success to her charismatic leadership, as well as her administrative acumen which buttressed her reputation for being able to deliver on governance.
There is no party hierarchy to speak of. With her out of the picture, it remains to be seen whether she can prevent it from breaking down.
Meanwhile, the opposition DMK is too enfeebled after its defeat in the recent elections and too riven by in-fighting to make much capital out of the AIADMK’s predicament.
All this points to the possible political instability in the State. That will not be good news for either the people or business in Tamil Nadu.