Vanakkam! As November prepares to give in to a most-eagerly-awaited first week of December, a review of what the North-East monsoon has delivered to Chennai and Tamil Nadu and an outlook on what it could possibly do in December would be in order.
So it's been normal, at -11 per cent, falling within the 19 per cent and -19 per cent of the long-period average prescribed by the India Meteorological Department for Tamil Nadu and an unusual -34 deficit for Puducherry.
Chennai district, too, has run up a deficit of -37 per cent as the North-East monsoon struggles to recover from the massive draw-down by the three powerful away-going cyclones during the October-November period.
What it can probably do beyond the first week of December needs to be assessed in view of the fact that the easterly to north-easterly flows could possibly undergo a nuanced shift to easterly-south-easterly, heading West to increasingly South-West. Or, more towards South Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka than North and Central Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. So rains materialising in the first week of December will be closely assessed by the diligently watchful bloggers of Chennai and the equally concerned weather warriors on social media.
To read this weather forecast in Tamil, click here
The National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System model of the US sees the seas around Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu being kept busy during the first fortnight of December with a late flourish from December 9 to 12.
Enhanced activity in the Bay of Bengal is likely to get transmitted across the South Peninsula into the southern parts of the Arabian Sea, with an increasingly evident tendency for flows to head West-South-West. So far during this season (October 1 to November 26), the Nilgiris district has received the maximum surplus rains of 64 per cent, followed at some distance by Ramanathapuram (33 per cent); Coimbatore and Tirunelveli (30 per cent each); Thoothukudi (20 per cent); Erode (13 per cent); and Pudukottai (12 per cent).
Chennai: 60 per cent chance of rain
So Chennai starts off the morning with an elevated 60 per cent chance of rain, with winds being north-easterly at 15-25 km/hr. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the day, with the temperature seeking a high of 31 degrees Celsius. Chances of rain increase to 90 per cent during the night, with the north-easterlies holding steady and a temperature low of 25 degrees Celsius. Thunderstorms are forecast for tomorrow (Thursday) morning as well.
Chennai International Airport (MAA/VOMM): Fog/rain conditions with temperature at 27 degrees Celsius and north-easterly winds at 11 km/hr at 6.40 am this (Wednesday) morning. The airport radar pictures showed apparent cloud cover along the coast past Puducherry and Chidambaram to the South, all the way to Velankanni, with a bank of clouds waiting out some distance to the South-West of Chennai. Average delay of five minutes (reducing tendency) in arrivals and seven minutes (increasing tendency).
Puducherry: 50% chance of rain
An elevated 50 per cent chance of rain, improving to 100 per cent into the night for Puducherry today, with winds steady at 15-30 km/hr. Mostly cloudy to start with, and then scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon with a day high of 30 degrees Celsius. Thunderstorms into the evening and night with a temperature low of 25 degrees Celsius, with winds being north-easterly with 100 per cent chance of rain. Thunderstorms likely tomorrow (Thursday) morning.
Salem: 20% chance of rain
Low chance of rain as a mix of clouds and sun mark the day with a temperature high of 31 degrees Celsius. Winds to be east-north-easterly at 10-15 km/h. A few clouds in the evening, with a temperature low of 23 degrees Celsius. Winds light and variable. A partly to most cloudy day tomorrow (Thursday) with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.
Coimbatore: 10% chance of rain
Almost nil chance of rains under partly cloudy conditions with a temperature high of 30 degrees Celsius. Winds to be north-easterly at 10-15 km/h. Improved chances of rain at 40 per cent into the evening/night, with skies clearing into midnight. Winds light and variable. Partly cloudy tomorrow (Thursday) morning with thunderstorms rearing in the afternoon.
Tiruchirappalli: 20% chance of rain
A foggy morning, turning partly cloudy in the afternoon. Winds north-easterly at 15-25 km/hr and a day high of 32 degrees Celsius. Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially late into the evening, with an elevated 60 per cent chance of rains. Temperature low with north-easterly winds at 10-15 km/h. Scattered thunderstorms on Thursday morning with 80 per cent of rain.
Madurai: 30% chance of rain
Scattered clouds this (Wednesday) morning. An isolated thunderstorm may develop in the afternoon with a day high of 33 degrees Celsius. Winds north-easterly at 15-25 km/h. Occasional showers with a possible thunderstorm in the afternoon with a temperature low of 24 degrees Celsius. Winds north-easterly at at 10 to 15 km/h with an elevated 50 per cent of rain at night.
Thoothukudi: 20% chance of rain
A comparably dry day out today despite considerable clouds in the morning. Clouds may lift to some extent later in the day with a temperature high of 32 degrees Celsius. Winds to be north-easterly at 15-30 km/h. An elevated 90 per cent chance of rain with a temperature low of 25 degrees Celsius with winds north-easterly at 15-30 km/hr. Thunderstorms likely in the night with north-easterly holding steady. Scattered thundestorms early tomorrow (Thursday) morning.
Chennai’s bloggers, their followers and the Twitterati are eagerly waiting for the skies to open: