Outlook for monsoon rainfall over the next two weeks suggests that key states in north India may continue to remain outliers in terms of expected distribution.
As per this, the Met subdivisions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, north and west Rajasthan, and parts of north and west Gujarat would need to contend with less than optimum rain.
In central India and the south, a similar trend would prevail over south Madhya Pradesh; Maharashtra (except the coast); Karnataka (except the south interior and coastal); and south Kerala.
This is despite the prospects of the monsoon being able to tackle a rival weather system in the form of tropical storm Rammasun in the northwest Pacific.
In fact, forecasts indicate that a positive spin-off effect from the Pacific storm may kick in to sustain the current spell in East and Northwest India even after a causative low-pressure area here dies out.
The emergent spell is thanks to the benign feature about Rammasun, evident in its westward track towards the Philippines and onward into South China Sea which lies within ear shot of the Bay of Bengal.
Rain surplus areas
As expected, Rammasun would reclaim typhoon status in the South China Sea and make a landfall over southeast China/Vietnamese coast over the next four days.
By this time, it would manage to send in a ‘pulse’ (an atmospheric wave) over Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia-Myanmar into the Bay of Bengal where it could regenerate as a ‘low’ to boost Indian monsoon.
Met subdivisions, which are likely to benefit from very heavy to heavy rainfall during the ongoing spell and the Rammasun-induced spell, would be as follows:
South and east Gujarat, Mumbai-Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, north Kerala; Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, south Uttar Pradesh, and south Bihar.
Moderate rain gains are indicated for: East Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana; Uttarakhand, north Uttar Pradesh, and north Bihar.