A recent study revealed that the implementation of social distancing and closure of businesses, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) two weeks prior could have saved more than 59000 lives in the United States.
The findings of the study highlighted the significance of quick and aggressive NPI implementation to counter transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and could help inform efforts to control new surges in the US and elsewhere in the world.
For the study, the researchers designed a metro population model of Covid-19 transmission in all 3,142 US counties during the period spanning February 21 through May 3, 2020.
They built the model using county-level data of confirmed cases and deaths compiled by USAFacts.org and commuter mobility data from the US Census, adjusting the latter for reductions in mobility due to NPIs implemented beginning around March 15.
The model revealed asynchronous reductions in disease transmission rates, reflected in changes to the estimated effective basic reproduction number (Re) in most counties during this time period.
They also performed counterfactual simulations to understand what could have been better implementation.
They observed that advancing NPIs by a week resulted in 601,667 fewer confirmed cases and 32,335 fewer deaths nationwide as of May 3.
In the second model, implementing NPIs a full two weeks earlier resulted in 1,041,261 fewer confirmed cases and 59,351 fewer deaths.
The researchers pointed that with timely implementation of Covid-19 protocols the cases could have been averted, not merely postponed.
The findings of the study were published in the journal American Association for the Advancement of Science.