Parts of Odisha and Bengal continue to be under heavy rainfall alert as a slow-moving depression parked itself 95 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 275 km south-southwest of Gopalpur this morning.
It has at least another day left to stay over the waters, which should normally give it adequate scope for intensification, but none of the weather models are taking a bet just yet.
SUPPORTING FACTORS
The supportive factors include the warm surface waters at its base, which takes care of its need for fuel -- convection, moisture and thunder clouds.
The other is the low to moderate vertical wind shear, the higher values of which don't allow it to grow the storm tower around which it builds its muscles.
A third is the window effect on top, which allows the system to literally breathe in and breathe out, allowing for its sustained strength and orderly growth.
But despite all this, proximity to the coast may not allow it the elbowroom needed. This is because the closer it is to the coast, the higher the threat from entrails of cooler and dry air from land.
According to the India Met Department (IMD), the system would be able to retain its strength as a depression for the rest of the day today. This is a statement on its undisputed staying power.
Global models have tended to put it on 'slow development' mode, meaning no more than a slow burn over the next couple of days along its north-north-east track.
HEAVY RAIN, HIGH WIND ALERTS
As for today and until tomorrow forenoon, rain has been forecast at most places over coastal Odisha, with heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places. It will be confined to a few places over interior Odisha.
Over Bengal, an almost similar forecast is valid for both today and tomorrow, with indications suggesting that the depression, though on a weakening trend, might be heading towards its coast.
Rain has been forecast at most places of the state with heavy rainfall at isolated places and moderate at a few places as well as the remaining parts of the plains.
North coastal Andhra Pradesh could expect rainfall at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated places during the rest of today, the IMD forecast said.
Squally winds with speeds of 50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr would prevail along and off the Odisha and Bengal coasts today and until forenoon tomorrow.
A similar high wind warning is valid along and off the North Andhra Pradesh coast for the rest of today. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the seas off these coasts.