Tighter immigration rules have cut off the fuel from the Canadian population growth engine.
Canada added just 20,107 people in the first quarter, essentially no percentage change to quarterly population growth, compared with an average of 0.3 per cent over the past decade, Statistics Canada data showed Wednesday. Excluding the pandemic, it’s the slowest quarterly rate since comparable records began in 1946, tied with the fourth quarter of 2014.
The first-quarter deceleration marks an end to record-breaking gains that allowed Canada’s population growth to rival that of many African nations during the years following the pandemic. The gains had been driven by temporary residents, especially foreign students, and the government is now looking to shrink that cohort.
The data is likely a welcome development for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has promised to bring immigration rates to “sustainable levels.” His predecessor Justin Trudeau started curbing new arrivals last year, after post-pandemic influxes overwhelmed the country’s capacity to absorb them.
The number of temporary residents fell to about 3 million, or 7.1 per cent of the total population, compared with a peak of 7.4 per cent last year. Outside of the pandemic, the reduction was the largest decrease for the country on record.
The largest decrease in non-permanent residents came from foreign students, with most of the decline occurring in Ontario and British Columbia. The two provinces recorded the largest quarterly losses in population since data collection began in 1951.
At the same time, the number of asylum claimants in the country increased for a 13th consecutive quarter, reaching a record high of 470,029 people.
Carney’s government has introduced a bill with tougher rules on asylum claims, in addition to limits already in place on foreign students and workers. Lawmakers are set to debate the legislation on Wednesday. It’s an apparent move to deter international students from abusing the system and brace for a possible surge of refugees fleeing US President Donald Trump’s crackdown.
The government’s current immigration plan aims for a period of flat population growth before a return to a pace of expansion that’s closer to historical levels.
Even though Canada is moving in tandem with some of its advanced economy peers in lowering immigration, the country still needs newcomers to replace its aging workers and grow its population. Similar to previous quarters, international migration accounted for all of the population growth because the number of deaths exceeded births by more than 5,600.
The challenge for the government now is to strike a balance between satisfying economic needs and rebuilding support for immigration among Canadians who increasingly turned against open-door policies in recent years. After winning an April election, Carney pledged to continue “attracting the best talent in the world to help build our economy.”
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