In a few weeks, we’ll have a much clearer picture of which way the general elections are headed. The current State elections are a dress-rehearsal for the big show in 2019. And the stark reality is if the BJP can’t sweep Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, their chances of pulling off a 2014 repeat are slim. Look at it another way: the BJP scored an against-the-odds single-party victory in 2014.
Strong regional parties in States from Uttar Pradesh to Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Jammu and Kashmir make it tough for ‘national parties’ like the BJP and the Congress to reach that magic 273 number. In fact, barring 2014, the national parties have depended on alliance partners since Rajiv Gandhi’s crushing over 400-seat win in 1984.
It’s possible the BJP’s own strategists were surprised by their 2014 albeit lopsided success in which they humbled Congress to a record low 44 seats. In some ways, they were like a student who writes five exams and scores 100 in three papers and zero in two. In Kerala, Tamil Nadu, undivided Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, they collected just six seats of 164.
Nevertheless, they grabbed 276 of the remaining 379 seats to finish with 282. That happened, as we know, because they bulldozed through north India, getting 25 out of 25 in Rajasthan, 26/26 in Gujarat, 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. They also achieved 7/10 in Haryana, 7/7 in Delhi and, crucially, 71/80 in Uttar Pradesh. In Maharashtra, the BJP managed 23 seats but was pushed past the post by 18 from its Shiv Sena ally, lifting the alliance to 41/48. BJP President Amit Shah has worked tirelessly to swing States, Kerala and West Bengal, towards the BJP but that’s unlikely to happen by May 2019 even though the Sabarimala judgment has caused considerable agitation. Back in 2004, the BJP mustered seven seats in Odisha but since has snared only one. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah have reputations as political masterminds but beating the odds this time round will be far tougher.
Editorial Consultant