Western Europe now wants to become self-sufficient in defence because America has told it that it will no longer pay for its security against Russia.
So Europe plans to spend $800 billion on defence over the next few years. It can easily afford this because this comes to just around 3 per cent of Western European GDP.
France, Italy and Germany also have the technological and manufacturing capacities as do the Scandinavian countries.
So neither money nor technology nor manufacturing ability are a problem. Therefore, goes the argument, the Americans can, well, go back, to America if they want to.
But. There’s always a but. The 100,000 US troops in Europe will have to be replaced.
Currently Western Europe or the European Union has around 1,25,000 soldiers. But to up their game they would need at least 300,000, say military experts.
Where are the soldiers to come from in the age group of 20-25? The median age in Europe is 45.
How many of the young men and women in the relevant age group will want to join the military when there is no actual war on?
This is not a new problem. While having an abundance of money, industrial capacity and technology Western Europe has always been short of men and therefore soldiers.
In the First World War the colonies sent the men. India alone sent over a million. 60,000 died. In the Second World War it was Russia that took the brunt providing between 8-10 million soldiers.
Since then it’s been the US that has provided but if it goes away, where will Europe get its soldiers from to do the actual fighting?
There’s no discussion of this problem. Instead, there is a lot of “don’t worry, by happy” analysis that says more military spending will lead to more jobs.
But bravado can’t be a substitute for local soldiers. So will Europeans import foreign soldiers? Like they always have?