The National Sample Survey Organisation's (NSSO) report (66th round) for 2010 shows a dip in the percentage of jobless persons across different indicators compared with 2004-05, the year of the previous survey. The overall unemployment rate dipped from 8.2 per cent to 6.6 per cent over this period, when measured in terms of current daily status (CDS), the most acceptable measure of employment.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rates and the much slower decline in the unemployment rate among women over this period is a cause for concern. The numbers show that the proportion of female labour in the total population has gone down from 215 per 1,000 in 2004-05 to 179 per 1,000 in 2009-10.
DATA QUALITY
Some of the inconsistencies in the employment and labour participation data have once again put a question mark over the quality of data. For instance, the Labour Force Participation rate, which is a ratio of labour force to population, showed a decline to 39.2 per cent in 2009-10 from 42 per cent on 2004-05. This is inconceivable at a time when the real GDP was growing at a healthy rate of 8.6 per cent per annum and the unemployment rate was declining.
Some experts believe that the NSSO's ‘Question and Answer' format could be the likely cause of the gaps. In fact, Pronab Sen, former chief statistician, who is now Principal Advisor in the Planning Commission, stated that the design of the survey was faulty. “For any survey-based data collection, follow-up questions and corrections are mandatory to be able to capture data accurately,” he explained.
Mr Rajiv Kumar, secretary-general of FICCI, supported Sen's view. He said the fall in labour force participation is “obscure” given the stage the economy is at right now. “With rising wages and growing economy, the data is obviously inconsistent”, he added. The problem seems to have got compounded by the fact that most of the investigators hired by the NSSO are on contract and hence they have low accountability.
Incidentally, the year 2009-10, the year of the survey, was an abnormal one with the global financial and economic slump, and employment in the urban areas of the country taking a big hit. Also, inadequate monsoons had caused a drought in many parts of the country, leading to low employment in rural areas also. The National Statistical Commission has already asked the NSSO to conduct a fresh round of survey this year.
A DISMAL PICTURE
Leaving aside the question of possible inaccuracies and evident inconsistencies, the broader picture relating to the employment scene in the country continues to remain dismal.
The survey figures show that an overwhelming 51 per cent of Indian workers were self-employed with the ratio as high as 54.2 per cent in rural areas and a little lower, 41.1 per cent, in urban areas.
It is a well-known fact that the majority of the so-called “self-employed” are in that category not by choice but for want of any job opportunities. In fact, the chunk of the poor in the country, belong to this category, engaging themselves in some petty part-time occupations because industry and services have not been able to absorb about them.
According to the survey, among those employed, the share of casual workers was as high as 33.5 per cent — 38.6 per cent in rural areas and 17.3 per cent in urban areas. The overall share of wage/salaried employment was just 15.6 per cent — 41.4 per cent in urban areas and 7.3 per cent in rural areas.
The survey also found that female employees, both in rural and urban areas, received less remuneration than their male counterparts for doing similar jobs.
Agri push needed
Over the decades, the share of agriculture in GDP has come down drastically and stood at only 14.6 per cent in 2009-10. Even now some 50 per cent of the total workforce in the country is engaged in this sector and it supports 60 per cent of the population. In fact, there is large-scale disguised unemployment in agriculture for want of alternative job opportunities.
Not surprisingly, the per worker value addition as well as the incomes are the lowest in agriculture in our country; the per worker value addition in the sector is estimated at around Rs 20,900 per annum. Incidentally, the excessive labour force engaged in the sector is one of the main reasons for the declining productivity being seen in agriculture and the prevalence of large-scale poverty.
For the overwhelming majority of workers in other sectors also, the working conditions and incomes are not much better as there has been a large-scale casualisation of labour force in the country because of rigid labour laws. About 92 per cent of India's workforce is in the unorganised sector.
According to a recently released survey of the Ministry of Labour and Employment, only 15.7 per cent of the Indian workforce is eligible for paid leave while just 16.3 per cent enjoy some kind of social security.
The country has been paying a heavy price for the prolonged neglect of agriculture, particularly in the post-reform period. Only a bold push for agriculture and a new deal for manufacturing, including the micro, small and medium enterprises, aimed at creating more job opportunities could change the situation for the better.