Dear Bro,
Hi... ummm, let me firstly do the right stuff and welcome you to this super-high profile job. It’s obviously every economist’s dream job, and yes, high gratifying, intellectually satisfying, policy-oriented and autonomous as well (err, at least on paper)!
Okay, formalities over, let me now talk plain truth. This job is the most thankless, frustrating, annoying and the most unenviable post an economist can ever hope to man. And while I’m extremely proud of you, I must convey that what I feel for you right now borders between high anxiety to plain paranoia. Friedman help us all! Why did you accept this, man?
Well, so I thought that I’ll be a good friend and share some of those few experiences that you may benefit from, as you step into the ring to try and control inflation, growth, employment, currency, exchange rates, FOREX reserves, bond yields, bank assets, RBI pay-scales, central banking autonomy as well as the Government’s ego, all at the same time, while still managing to look completely unruffled and fit from your squash game last evening.
The media is the undoubtedly most exasperating part of the job and will insist on calling you Santa Claus (post rate-cut), inflation warrior (post rate hike) and rockstar (when you maintain status-quo). Hehehe, I may be the rockstar, but you are the quintessential rapper, eh?
There’s news from the RBI, Yo! It’s sure lookin good/
Sentiment is up, so is the market mood!
China is down, but the US looks bright/
We’ve got a new warrior, Yo! A corporate-wala knight!
Rap…….Patel Rap!
All the best, Bro. I never quite knew how to react to these crazy things they wrote about me. So here is my first advice. It is alright even if you do not plan your post-policy review speech, but you MUST plan how you’ll react to the rapper analogy. Will you be white-lipped and disapproving, or give just a plain bored look, or will you laugh outright? My personal strategy was always “review with a smile”. That humour quotient always works. And oh boy, are you going to need that humour!
A word of caution. Avoid idioms and phrases and just talk plain ole repo. You’ll do well to steer clear of the land of the blind, one-eyed, two-eyed or any kind of king completely. Also stay away from regular birds like hawks, doves, owls; run in the opposite direction on spotting the black swan.
What can I advice you about inflation targeting? It was you who spearheaded the entire process and helped set the bandwidths around the 4 per cent inflation mark. But Bro, there is this other targeting I have to caution you about. Tch, tch, tch, you are too international for this profile. Born in Kenya, graduated from LSE, an MPhil from Oxford, and a PhD from Yale? A stint with IMF and BCG? Are we in trouble! Earlier it was only me who was “unIndian”, but now there’s also Brett Lee and you. Wonder if they’ll invite Brett next. Anyway, welcome to the madness. I am sure you will deal with it with your usual good sense, and set those bandwidths of tolerance around your profile.
Don’t let the volatility in markets lead to volatility in your mind. Let statisticians worry about the ARIMA models. Remember, GARIMA is more important that ARIMA. A final word: When you are having a hard time, read ‘Tweakonomics’ in Business Line .
Sincerely,
Banker on the move.
The writer is a Pune-based economist