With kharif sowing likely to pick up momentum soon, there are several ‘new normals’ with respect to climate that need to be considered. There are enough studies and data to tell us that summer is getting longer and hotter by the year, while the monsoon too is interspersed with more dry spells and intense bouts of rainfall. India’s foodgrains output (rice, but not pulses) has been quite robust amidst these swings in climate — yet, this macro reality is an oversimplified one.
It papers over agrarian distress owing to drought-like conditions, as well as large pockets that deal with excessive rainfall. A Reserve Bank of India paper has recently cited the effects of high rainfall on crop output, and called for new cropping strategies for crops that cannot withstand excessive rain. This is significant, as the focus is generally more on adaptation to drought-like conditions. The RBI paper, published in its March Bulletin, points out that the number of districts that received normal and deficient rainfall dipped in 2024 over 2023, but the number of districts with excessive rainfall increased sharply. Excess rain impacts pulses (certain varieties) and maize more adversely than a deficit, whereas rice is able to withstand a deficit (owing to irrigation, often through groundwater) as well as copious rainfall (since it needs standing water). In the case of pulses, deficit rainfall during the sowing season and an excess during flowering can be damaging. Deficit rain impacts arhar, but less so moong and urad. Soyabean quality degrades with excessive rain. Heavy rain in August and September can damage oilseeds crops. These traits should be kept in mind to prepare for early sowing in the case of maize, for example. Excess rain is a late-monsoon phenomenon.
Besides crop diversification, cropping methods that improve drainage and reduce waterlogging risks must be prioritised. The research establishment should break out of its Green Revolution mould and develop resilient, even if less high-yielding strains. Meanwhile, the number of districts impacted by excessive rainfall may over time exceed the deficit regions. A January 2024 study by the Council of Energy, Environment and Water that studies rainfall patterns over four decades at a district level seems to point in this direction. It observes that 30 per cent of the districts witnessed a high number of deficient rainfall years, while 38 per cent observed a high number of excessive rainfall years. A 2015 RBI study observes that a positive monsoon shock (excessive rain) does not lift output to the extent that a negative shock damages it — which is perhaps due to the groundwater crisis and the impact of excessive rain.
A shift in approach that prioritises sturdy and less resource-intensive varieties of pulses and oilseeds is called for — so that they can rival the advantages of growing rice. The medium-term consequences of not adapting to the new climate realities can prove to be damaging — undermining our short-term output goals.