The India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems to believe that India will prove fourth time lucky in witnessing a normal South-West monsoon in 2022. Its second-stage monsoon forecast predicts that all-India rainfall will be at 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) in June to September, with the probability of normal to excess rains at a high 81 per cent. It also expects good spatial distribution, with Central and Southern India and the rainfed Monsoon Core Zone expected to receive over 106 per cent of LPA, with normal rains in most other regions. This second-stage forecast from IMD is considerably more optimistic than its first-stage forecast issued in April which pegged overall rainfall at 99 per cent of LPA and put the probability of normal to excess rains at just 60 per cent. While such a forecast would ordinarily offer hope for a lift to the fortunes of rural India, there are imponderables that don’t allow room for such complacency.
While IMD’s assessment of the overall quantum of rains has proved reliable in recent years, its predictive abilities have faltered at forecasting either the spatial or temporal distribution of rains. This year, IMD’s forecast of munificent rains are predicated on presently moderate La Nina conditions in the Pacific, continuing to prevail over neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. But a very similar forecast last year was upset by the emergence of a negative IOD in the latter part of the season. This led to deficient rains in July and August followed by a delayed monsoon withdrawal, which hit the kharif harvest. The occurrence of more extreme weather events in recent years with dry spells interrupted by short bursts of abnormally heavy rains has played havoc with acreage and yield of key crops, even in normal monsoon years. Heat-wave conditions during the recent rabi season, which led to a 4-million-tonne downward revision in wheat output estimates, triggering drastic cuts in procurement targets and eventually leading to an export ban, illustrate that both IMD’s nowcasting capabilities and the Agriculture Ministry’s ability to accurately gauge output, are now more important to farmers than the pre-season monsoon forecast.
But even if a normal monsoon season leads to a bumper kharif crop this year, it is not a given that it will lift the fortunes of farmers or the struggling rural economy. Post-pandemic, rural India has seen dwindling incomes with reverse migration adding to the pressure on low-paying agricultural jobs. The government has made attempts to alleviate rural distress by extending PMGKY transfers, supplementing MGNREGA allocations and absorbing the impact from spiralling fertiliser prices into its subsidy bill. But to reap the rewards of surplus output, farmers also need to enjoy favourable terms of trade where they are able to capitalise on global food shortages through exports and enjoy better domestic realisations. But whenever food inflation rears its head, political considerations usually intervene to put the interests of consumers above farmers. In its market intervention measures to rein in prices, the Centre needs to maintain a better balance between consumer and grower interests. It must also avoid flip-flops on its policies on agricultural tariffs and trade that cause damage to India’s global reputation as a reliable supplier.