Those concerned about the effects of global warming must have heaved a sigh of relief on hearing US President-elect Donald Trump say on Tuesday that he has an open mind on the Paris agreement. For someone who had argued all along that climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese to run down American industry, this comes as quite a turnaround. Trump should rethink on a crisis that seems to be getting worse by the year, with the window fast closing on the chance to restrict the average rise in the planet’s temperature to two degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, notwithstanding the country-wise commitments made in the Paris agreement. Anxieties over Trump’s win loomed large over the recently concluded climate ministerial in Marrakech, which was essentially a follow-up on last year’s Paris meet. World leaders such as France’s former president Nicholas Sarkozy said that the US could face a stiff tax on its goods if it walks out on the Paris pact. The apprehension was understandable: in 2001, the George W Bush administration refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, the precursor to the Paris pact, for placing obligations only on the OECD countries to reduce emissions. But times have changed. Numerous UN climate ministerials after Kyoto in 1997, coinciding with the economic emergence of China and India, have sought to question the developed-developing world divide.
Hence, China, the world’s second largest economy and the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (accounting for over 25 per cent of total GHG emissions against 15 per cent in the case of the US), has now committed to an emissions abatement plan. It plans to ensure that emissions peak by 2030 and to lower the carbon intensity of its GDP by 60-65 per cent over 2005 levels by that year. The US has promised to cut emissions to 26-28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2025 by shifting to clean energy. It would be disastrous if Trump, backed by coal and independent oil producers, reverses these commitments.
India is the world’s third largest GHG emitter, accounting for 6 per cent of global emissions, although it is at about 10th place in terms of per capita emissions. India’s constant and legitimate refrain, which is reflected in its NDC, is that climate justice — or the right to grow to address the energy deprivation of about 300 million citizens — cannot be brushed aside in trying to clean up the world’s atmosphere. Hence, it has not committed to when its emissions will peak, but has committed to a 30-35 per cent reduction in the emissions intensity of its GDP by 2030 over 2005 levels, predicated on a shift to renewables. But for this, the onus lies on the developed world to transfer funds and technology, an area where more progress is required. Climate diplomacy has just got off the blocks, thanks to Paris, Marrakech and the recent pacts on refrigeration and aviation emissions. The United States — and Trump — need to lead by example here.