Water is fundamental to human survival and development, yet it remains a source of tension and conflict, particularly where transboundary rivers serve multiple nations. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Indus basin, which forms the backbone of agricultural, economic, and ecological life for hundreds of millions in India and Pakistan.
The Indus Waters Treaty, often celebrated as a model of cooperation, is today under unprecedented strain due to changing geopolitical dynamics, acute water stress, and recent Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir.
At the time of partition in 1947, control over the Indus River system became a central dispute between India and Pakistan. The Indus basin consists of six main rivers — Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — all rising in the Himalayas and traversing both nations. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru from India and President Ayub Khan from Pakistan, is lauded as one of the world’s most enduring and effective international river agreements.
Brokered by the World Bank, it apportions the waters of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan, two nuclear armed neighbours with a history of conflict. For over six decades, the treaty has ensured water-sharing stability even amidst wars and political strife.
However, recent strategic, climatic, and political developments, most notably, India’s decision in early 2023 to seek treaty modification and the recent Pahalgam incident, threaten the treaty’s continuity. With both economies heavily reliant on irrigation and water allocation became a flashpoint.
The IWT allocated about 80 per cent of the total Indus system waters (estimated 168 billion cubic meters, BCM, per year) to Pakistan and 20 per cent to India.
The three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) with approximately 135 BCM annually, were allocated to Pakistan, with India retaining limited rights for irrigation, navigation, and hydropower generation; and eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) with approximately 33 BCM annually were exclusively allocated to India.
A Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) was established, enabling regular dialogue and dispute resolution. The World Bank remains a signatory, with the authority to facilitate arbitration. For Pakistan, the Indus system sustains nearly 90 per cent of the country’s agricultural activity and supplies water to about 220 million people, accounting for more than 65 per cent of the population and for India, the system is vital to approximately 120 million people in the northern States of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, supporting agriculture, industry, and urban areas.
In Pakistan, over 16 million hectares are irrigated by the Indus Basin Irrigation System (the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system), which is the primary source for staple crops like wheat, rice, and cotton.
The treaty’s resilience is remarkable as it has survived three major wars (1965, 1971, and the Kargil conflict of 1999) and numerous military crises, remaining a rare, functioning channel of communication and cooperation.
Rising Tensions
The 21st century has seen a hardening of India’s stance on water-sharing, driven by repeated cross-border security incidents, deteriorating bilateral relations and the revocation of Jammu & Kashmir’s special status by India in 2019.
In early 2023, against the backdrop of the Uri 2016 and Pulwama 2019 attacks and ongoing tensions, India invoked Article XII of the IWT, issuing notice to Pakistan and signalling intent to seek treaty modifications, a first since the treaty’s inception.
The Pahalgam attack has further soured public sentiment and political will in India regarding cooperation with Pakistan.
Indian policymakers argue that the IWT, formulated over 60 years ago, does not account for present-day realities such as population growth, climate change, changing hydrology, and new water-use patterns.
Additionally, repeated delays and objections by Pakistan to Indian hydropower projects on the western rivers have created diplomatic bottlenecks and slowed India’s infrastructure development.
Impact on Pakistan
Agricultural vulnerability: Pakistan’s agricultural sector, employing nearly half its population, is almost wholly dependent on the Indus and its tributaries.
Any reduction or alteration in water flows, especially during crucial cropping seasons, could hurt food production, impacting major crops like wheat and rice.
Hydropower and energy security: Hydropower from the Indus system is integral to Pakistan’s energy grid. Changes in upstream water releases would affect power generation at facilities such as Tarbela and Mangla, exacerbating electricity shortages and economic instability.
Environmental and social stress: Diminished flows could accelerate desertification in Sindh and Punjab, intensify salinity and erosion in the Indus delta, degrade ecosystems, and trigger internal displacement due to declining rural livelihoods.
Diplomatic isolation: With India’s growing diplomatic and economic weight, Pakistan may find it harder to rally international support or secure favourable arbitration outcomes, especially as global attention shifts to climate and energy crises elsewhere.
Impact on India
Strategic leverage: Greater flexibility in developing the western rivers could benefit Indian States through enhanced irrigation and hydropower capacity, potentially boosting economic development in the northern border regions.
International reputation: Unilaterally altering or suspending the IWT risks damaging India’s image as a responsible international actor, potentially undermining other transboundary water agreements and drawing international censure.
Environmental risks: Aggressive water infrastructure development without bilateral coordination may increase sedimentation, alter natural river regimes, and harm fragile Himalayan and deltaic ecosystems shared by both countries.
The repercussions
The Indus Waters Treaty stands as a testament to pragmatic diplomacy in a conflict prone region. The Indus basin’s strategic location in a nuclear-armed, densely populated region magnifies the risks of water conflict.
International law emphasises equitable and reasonable utilisation of shared rivers. Dismantling IWT (suspended now) could trigger legal disputes, militarise water management, and set a precedent f or transboundary basins in Asia and beyond.
The consequences would be severe for Pakistan’s water, food, and energy security, and would carry significant risks for India’s development and international standing.
Moreover, climate change, manifested in erratic monsoon patterns, glacier retreat, and more frequent droughts and floods, heightens the urgency for cooperative and adaptive water governance.
A breakdown of the IWT framework would make joint responses to these shared challenges far more difficult. With over 340 million people directly dependent on the Indus system, the stakes are extraordinarily high.
The writer is a Freelance Researcher (Water Resources Management, Climate Change & Disaster Risk Resilience) and formerly with TERI and NDMA