Crude oil prices moved up last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was up 3.1 per cent as it closed at $85.2 per barrel, whereas crude oil futures on the MCX gained 3 per cent by ending the week at ₹6,746 a barrel.
Brent futures ($85.2)
Brent Crude futures is on an upward trajectory for nearly three weeks. Last week, it crossed over a resistance at $84. Also, the price is now above both 50- and 200-day moving average, giving the contract a bullish undertone.
Going ahead, there might be some moderation, possibly to $84. We expect Brent crude futures to resume the up-move. It can touch $92. There is a minor resistance at $87.
The uptrend will remain valid so long as the contract stays above $81.
MCX-Crude oil (₹6,746)
Crude oil futures (July expiry) has been on a rally recently. It bounced off the support at ₹6,100 early this month.
Last week, it surpassed the resistance at ₹6,650 and the contract has now risen past the 50-day moving average. These are positive signs.
In the forthcoming session, crude oil futures might see a minor fall in price, probably to ₹6,500. Post this correction, the contract can start moving up again. It shows potential to rally to ₹7,100. A breakout of this can lift the crude oil futures to ₹7,500.
In case the price slips below the support at ₹6,350, the short-term outlook can turn bearish. But given the prevailing momentum, the likelihood of such a decline is low.
Trade strategy: Go long on crude oil futures now at ₹6,750. Add longs if the price dips to ₹6,500. Place initial stop-loss at ₹6,300. Book profits at ₹7,100.