India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that there is a large variation among global models with respect to the landfall timing of cyclone Fengalalong the Tamil Nadu coast, prompting it to recently push the expected time of the event from this (Saturday) afternoon to evening.
The cyclone over the south-west Bay of Bengal picked up speed in lateral movement to the west-northwest at 13 km/hr during the past six hours, ending at 8.30 a.m. It lay centred about 120 km east-northeast of Puducherry, around where it is projected to make landfall, but was closer to Chennai at 110 km to the southeast and 200 km north-northeast of Nagapattinam.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model shows landfall time as around 8.30 am tomorrow (Sunday); the IMD-Global Forecast System (IMD-GFS) at 9.30 pm tonight (Saturday); the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-United Model (NCUM) at 4.30 pm tonight; and US National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecasts System (NCEP-GFS) at 4.30 am day after tomorrow (Monday), the IMD said.
IMD infers that Fengal may now move nearly westwards over south-west Bay and cross the north Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mahabalipuram close to Puducherry with wind speeds of 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr by this evening, ending its extended stay over waters off the Tamil Nadu coast.