Thiruvananthapuram, June 21
The northern limit of the monsoon continues to pass through Porbandar, Baroda, Shivpuri, Rewa and Churk (Uttar Pradesh) while the offshore trough on the West Coast has sprung back to life and lay extended from South Gujarat to North Kerala on Tuesday afternoon, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.
The US Climate Prediction Centre sees a resurgent monsoon showering its bounty mainly over the West and Central India (especially over west Madhya Pradesh) during the ongoing week ending June 29, while the week that follows (June 29-July 7) will see the heavy rain belt over Central India move to parts of North-West India and East India, while heavy rains will likely hold steady along most of the West Coast.
Offshore trough is back
The progress of the monsoon is more or less in line with the normal now with the lag being felt over only parts of Gujarat, north-west Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh. The all-India rainfall deficit has been reduced to 2 per cent — thanks mainly to the good precipitation over Assam, Meghalaya, the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim. But parts of Central India, including the farming heartland, continues to be variously in deficit after a late monsoon onset.
Return of the offshore trough will cause strong moisture-laden westerly monsoon winds to blow in and precipitate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, thunderstorms and lightning over Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Kerala and Lakshadweep; while it will be scattered to fairly widespread over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days.
Western disturbance moves in
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Gujarat region during next five days; over the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra from Wednesday to Friday; north interior Karnataka and Kerala on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday; Saurashtra on Saturday; and over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa during next five days and over coastal Karnataka until Friday.
Towards the North, a passing western disturbance (which slows down the incoming monsoon) has been attracting south-westerly winds from the Arabian Sea, which will continue to trigger fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms and lightning over the hills (Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) while it will be scattered to fairly widespread over the adjoining plains (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan) until Wednesday.
Showers over Rajasthan
Isolated heavy rainfall was forecast over north-west Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab while isolated hailstorm was predicted over Uttarakhand on Tuesday. It will be scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm and lightning for Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall was predicted for west Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday; and over east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh from Tuesday to Saturday.
Heavy monsoon in East
Towards the East, where the monsoon has been making itself heard loud and clear, the southerly to south-westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to North-East and adjoining East India will continue to bring widespread rainfall over the North-and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim during the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall may lash Assam and Meghalaya and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim during this period and over Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from during Thursday to Friday.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, thunderstorms and lightning may occur over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and the plains of West Bengal during next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall was forecast over the plains of West Bengal on Tuesday; over Bihar and Jharkhand from Thursday to Saturday and over Odisha until Saturday.