Target: ₹1,109
CMP: ₹1,233.90
Along expected lines, Macrotech Developers (Lodha) achieved strong Q4-FY24 sales bookings of ₹4,230 crore (up 40 per cent y-o-y).
Hence, the company has achieved FY24 sales bookings of ₹14,500 crore, exactly in line with its FY24 sales booking guidance.
With the recent equity raise of about ₹3,300 crore, Lodha has pared net debt to ₹3,010 crore (net D/E of 0.1x). With a strong launch pipeline heading into FY25 and new FY24 project additions with GDV of ₹20,300 crore, the company is targeting 20 per cent sales booking CAGR over FY24-26E as well, implying FY26 sales bookings of ₹21,000 crore, for which it intends to continue pursuing aggressive business development.
Factoring in recent QIP and new land bank additions, we revise our TP to ₹1,109 (from ₹1,013) based on 50 per cent premium to FY24E NAV of ₹739/share. Maintain Hold.
We await further clarity on company’s ability to replenish high-value inventory, especially in South and Central Mumbai before raising our estimates further.
Key upside risk is higher-than-expected price growth; and downside risk is a slowdown in Mumbai market volumes.