The beginning of the new month will be negative amid mixed global and domestic cues. The US Fed’s decision to hold the rates and confused signals keep market watchers perplexed.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that after starting 2024 with three months of faster-than-expected price increases, it “will take longer than previously expected” for policymakers to become comfortable that inflation will resume the decline towards 2 per cent that had cheered them through much of last year.
Meanwhile, in India, the GDP collection for April month hit an all-time high of ₹2.10-lakh crore even as core group output grew 5.2 per cent in March 2024, slower than 7.1 per cent growth in February 2024.
Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Head – Research, Acuité Ratings & Research, said: Mar’24 data for the eight core industries (ECI) further confirms our view that the core sector has been a key driver of the Indian economy in FY24 and is likely to remain one in FY25 as well.”
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“With the consistent focus on ramping up public infrastructure spend, most of the core industries except the oil and gas segment have got an impetus which is beyond the usual cyclicality in the sector. The key industries which has boosted the output of the core sector in FY24 are – steel, coal, cement and power. The weighted growth in these four core industries amounted to 9.90% during the year and if it were not for the weak output in crude oil and refined petroleum production, the reported core sector growth would have been closer to double digits,” it added.
Gunjan Prabhakaran, Partner & Leader, Indirect Tax, BDO India, said the all-time high GST collection on April 24 has come on the back of strong growth in GST collections from northern states like UP, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, etc.
“The GST collection in April month has traditionally been higher (the previous highest GST collection was also achieved in April, 23), given that it reflects the economic activity in the month of March, which is the last month of the fiscal year,” he added.
Gift Nifty at 22,675 against Nifty futures value of 22,718.30 signals a negative opening.
Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: the long-short ratio jumped to 43 per cent on April 29 from 35 per cent on April 26 as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) built long positions and liquidated short positions in Index futures.
“Significant call writing was observed at the 22,800 Strike in the index. The put writers cut their exposure at the 22,700 Strike towards the last hour of the day which led the down move in Nifty. The option activity at the 22,800 Strike will provide cues about Nifty’s direction ahead of the weekly expiry on Thursday, May 2,” he added.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said: “We view the intermediate profit-taking in the index as a healthy correction and anticipate Nifty to maintain support around the 22,300-22,400 zone. Most key sectors, except IT, are participating in the movement, so participants should adjust their positions accordingly.”