Yesterday's 'well-marked' low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea has now become a depression, but has moved away and was located west-north-west of Lakshadweep this morning.
The intensification phase, which had prompt 'red' and 'orange' alerts for a few districts in Kerala, did not witness the anticipated escalation in rainfall, leading to their review selectively.
This is being attributed to the fact that the core of the system lay farther away than initially estimated in the ocean, where it intensified and began to move further away.
TRACK TOWARDS OMAN
This morning, the India Met Department (IMD) located the system 1,380 km East-South-East of Salalah (Oman) and 1,290 km East-South-East of Socotra Island (Yemen).
It is on course to intensify further into a deep depression by evening and into a cyclonic storm tomorrow. The present track of movement should take it towards South Oman and adjoining Yemen.
Landfall should take place over the next five days, during which time a counterpart low-pressure area is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal, and is also expected to reach the strength of a depression.
The IMD has already located a preparatory cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal.
Under its influence, a 'low' would form over the same region by tomorrow and concentrate into a depression by Monday. It should later head towards the Odisha coast by Wednesday/ Thursday.
The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep and heavy rain over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Coastal and South Interior Karnataka for today.
HIGH WINDS OUTLOOK
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are likely over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka today. Wind with speeds reaching 50 km/hr, and gusting to 60 km/hr are likely over the Lakshadweep area and South-East Arabian Sea, while they would reach 70 km/hr, gusting to 80 km/hr over the Central Arabian Sea.
'Rough' to 'very rough' sea conditions (wave heights of up to 20 ft) may prevail over the Lakshadweep area, South and Central Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
As for tomorrow, heavy to very heavy rain will continue to lash Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala, while it would be heavy over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The approaching western disturbances over North-West India would cause thunderstorms, lightning, and hail storms over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
Meanwhile, the initiation of a cyclone would have sped up winds to 80 km/hr, gusting to 90 km/hr over the Central Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.