Two students of business economics are having lunch in the dormitory. The conversation veers towards the recently announced census in India. They discuss how to include it in their respective projects for extra credits.
Vinod: I have a presentation lined up on statistics and the recently announced census will pad it up very nicely. I plan on explaining sampling surveys versus full representation to bring out the point.
Girija: Yes, I was confused by the two. So, what is the big difference?
Vinod: You can think of a survey as a light version of a census. For instance, if you are tasked with finding out the penetration of cars in India, instead of going to every household, you simply ask 100 people. If 10 say they have a car, you conclude that one in ten in India possesses a car.
Girija: It is apparent that where you are asking has a big impact. If you ask around in Glacial Heights society, you will conclude that every family in India has two cars, and you’d think the real crisis is parking, not car ownership!
Vinod: Sample size and the distribution of geography, age, sex, and income are crucial factors in determining the power and effectiveness of a survey. The most powerful survey is the census. Ask everyone, leave nothing to imagination. That is why the census will take two years to complete.
Girija: It should be worth the wait as we seem to be reliant on data that is still nearly 20 years old. I think the market research community will relish the census results.
Vinod: Yes, one group eagerly awaiting this data is the market research and investor community. Why? Because much of India’s untapped potential lies outside the top 30 cities. I am personally looking forward to the data from the so-called tier 2 cities. I think India has a good market beyond the top metros: places like Jabalpur, Visakhapatnam, Raipur, Surat, or Tiruchirappalli could see a real spurt in economic activity.
Girija: Like you said, companies or even industry bodies can only aim for surveys, however high-powered they may be, given the cost and time such exercises demand. I think the current census will allow capital allocation to be more streamlined, help look beyond the oversaturated cities, and tap talent across the country. The treasure trove of data will support investments that may have been held back for lack of reliable insights.
Vinod: Also, Central and State governments can recalibrate their spending. In the last five years, Central government spending has grown by leaps and bounds. By studying data from the census, the State can ascertain if the “trickle down” effect has transpired. It can help differentiate where the welfare schemes are working and where they’re just statistical checkboxes. If income levels haven’t moved or if access to toilets or electricity remains patchy in certain districts, policies can finally be tailored more precisely.
Girija: Considering the effort to enumerate the world’s largest population, the business intelligence gains from this census will ripple through the next decade.