Comments
A deficient August is likely to be followed by a forgettable September to round off this year’s South-West monsoon when it retreats fully from mainland India in another 35 days.
October could spring a nasty surprise in terms of drier than normal weather, according to a long-term forecast issued on Tuesday by the APEC Climate Centre based in Busan, South Korea.
November reliefBut November could make an impression with normal rainfall for most of the country with excess rain indicated for some of the fringe areas.
And December could turn in a bumper in terms of normal rainfall for the country as a whole even as the extreme southern and western flanks witness excess showers.
The month-wise break-up of expected rain for the four months of September, October, November and December projected by the South Korean forecaster is as follows:
Month-wise outlookSeptember
Excess – Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh
Normal- Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Northeast Rajasthan, South Tamil Nadu and Kerala
Deficient – rest of Northwest India and South Peninsula and entire Central India
October
Normal – South Kerala, South Tamil Nadu,East Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland-Mizoram-Manipur-Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya
Deficient – East India, Northwest India, Central India and South Peninsula
November
Excess – Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar and extreme South Peninsula
Normal – Northwest India, West and South Peninsula
Deficient – Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh
December
Normal – almost the whole country
Excess – South Tamil Nadu, Kerala, entire West Coast including Konkan-Goa and adjoining interior Maharashtra, entire Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.
Deficit to stayThe overall rain deficit as a whole was unchanged at 11 per cent on Tuesday but individual figures for the main four geographical divisions have worsened from overnight.
Over South Peninsula, the shortfall has reverted to being a crippling 20 per cent while that over the Central Peninsula worsened to 14 per cent.
More or less similar is the situation both in North-West India and East and North-East India where the deficits, though still in single figures, have gone up to five per cent and seven per cent respectively.
None of the weather models set great store by a fresh low-pressure area expected to form over North Bay of Bengal in another two days.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts speculates that the ‘low’ would die out without so much as a whimper.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.