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The monsoon has forfeited the surplus built up over the country as a whole thus far and is looking for a trigger to get going again from the South Peninsula.
Region-wise, the surplus is 2 per cent over North-West India, 1 per cent over the South Peninsula, and 11 per cent over Central India as of Friday. East and North-East India persisted with a deficit of -16 per cent.
Projections by the India Met Department suggest a fresh burst of rains may materialise from the South during this week (July 21 to 25) from the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts.
North-west dryMadhya Pradesh, adjoining Gujarat, East Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh may witness a dry phase during the week, while normal rains are indicated for West Rajasthan.
Heavy to very heavy rains will continue to lash parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North-East India, the Met projections show. The last week of July (26 to 30) would see rains consolidate over Peninsular India, grow into west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab.
Below-normal rainfall is likely to occur during the next two weeks over Saurashtra, Kutch, Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka, says an extended weather forecast brought out jointly by the Met, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture.
Meanwhile, the Met said that normal to excess rains are expected in most parts of the country during the first 10 days of August, which is the second rainiest month of the four monsoon months.
Two-week forecastThe detailed outlook for the next two weeks from the India Met Dept, the ICAR and the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture is as follows:
Normal or above normal rainfall likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Madhya Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
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