Wet weekend predicted for South; rain deficit grows in North

South India can look to some organised rainfall during this weekend even as the deficit over North-West and Central India has started climbing further.

The all-important monsoon trough, the backbone of the weather system, lay in a shambles along the foothills of the Himalayas.

It has broken up into two, which speaks of the severity of the situation with rising surface temperature in Northwest India.

The parent trough lies nestled along the foothills while the breakaway half is left stranded in the East of the country, its southern end dipping into East-central Bay of Bengal.

Now, the tip of a trough dipping into the warm waters of the Bay is always a potential area of ‘cyclogenesis’ (formation of low-pressure area) and will be watched with interest.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts initially saw possibility of a ‘low’ developing under the benign influence of a building typhoon racing in from the Pacific.

But it is less confident of the scenario where it would need to be wary of a ‘minefield’ developing to the east of the Philippines with explosive activity.

The European Centre saw a virtual line of fire evolving here with at least two fresh typhoons developing even as the predecessor speeds away back towards the West-central Pacific.

This east-northeast direction of the typhoon away from Asia could snuff out hopes of the ‘low’ in the Bay evolving to any significant strength.

In the absence of south-easterly winds from such a ‘low,’ the way would get cleared up further for the dry air to fill and penetrate towards Central and adjoining East India.

Meanwhile, the India Met Department has refrained from announcing the withdrawal of the monsoon from Northwest India, which is getting increasingly dry by the day.

A western disturbance with its comparatively cooler air is seen delaying the process, though it will not take much longer for the announcement to come.

In the south, a fresh rain-driving trough has materialised along the East Coast from Rayalaseema to Gulf of Mannar (off Sri Lanka) across Tamil Nadu.

Moisture-laden winds are blowing into the trough from around Sri Lanka into the trough which is already bringing rainfall into parts of the peninsula.

Most parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south interior Karnataka and Kerala are forecast to receive rainfall during the weekend.

The US Climate Prediction Centre says above normal rainfall would be the theme here during the period right until the middle of September.

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