Rank opportunism or smart politics?

The script for the 2019 election is getting so favourable for the BJP under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine, that it may prove to be a facile election whose outcome is already known. As though the landslide victory of the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections was not enough to annihilate an already listless Opposition, now Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has crashed the mahagatbandhan.

Last week the inevitable happened; inevitable because this script was written much earlier. The man who had expressed such “moral outrage” at Modi being named the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and managed to score such a spectacular victory in the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls for the grand alliance, had been softening towards the Prime Minister for some time. First came his support for demonetisation and then his backing of the candidature of Ram Nath Kovind as President.

The break from the RJD-Congress camp came with such clockwork precision that he deserved the title of ‘gross opportunist’. He resigned as chief minister; soon enough the Prime Minister tweeted, welcoming his resignation and “the fight against corruption”: the NDA offered support and Nitish was sworn in chief minister for the second time in two years in less than 24 hours... actually 16 hours! Can there be a better instance of chat mangni, pat byah (quick engagement and marriage)?

Why the charges of opportunism stick on Nitish is because the partner he chose to form his government with in 2015 — Lalu Prasad Yadav and his Rashtriya Janata Dal — was already mired in corruption charges. The fodder scam during his regime in Bihar, the gross corruption for which he was known, not to mention the strong-arm tactics he used throughout his years in power to stifle dissent or opposition, were all in the public domain. If his antaratma (conscience) did not trouble him then, and secularism tilted the scales against corruption, why this volte-face now is the legitimate question.

The main problem is that the man who has emerged as Bihar’s tall leader, thanks to his image of a clean politician capable of offering good governance — he is known as Sushasan Babu in Bihar — still pales before Lalu’s political reach in Bihar with his MY (Muslim-Yadav) vote base, and his ability to make grand alliances. Lalu shares a much better rapport with the Congress high command, and had stood by Sonia Gandhi during the videshi origin debate. The fact remains that despite Nitish taking the high moral ground when Modi was named the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, in the Bihar elections it was Lalu and his RJD that got more seats than the JD(U). But the astute politician in Nitish entered and stayed with the grand alliance because the convicted Lalu could not become chief minister for six years.

Lalu did the second-best thing: he anointed his son Tejashwi as deputy chief minister. He, however, proved to be a chip of the old block and got mired in more corruption charges. But even as the Nitish-RJD juggernaut was moving along came the stunning BJP victory in UP. This must have dashed to the ground Nitish’s not-so-secret ambition of becoming Prime Minister through a non-NDA alliance.

With the beleaguered Congress facing a fresh revolt in Gujarat through Shankersinh Vaghela’s exit, the Left parties’ fortunes at an all-time low, Mulayam and Mayawati being reduced to caricatures, and the Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee caught up in the web of the Sarada scam, the secular brigade is visibly doomed. What else could Nitish do except ditch the secularism bandwagon and jump on to the winning side?

For the BJP this is a sweet moment, as its humiliating defeat in the 2015 Bihar polls has been avenged to some extent. But surely Nitish knows that the BJP in the NDA camp that he is returning to after a four-year divorce is a party with not only a brute majority but also an unbeatable combine in the Modi-Shah leadership, which is all out to crush regional leaders and parties. For the time being this was the best option for the man who had talked about a “Sangh mukt Bharat” while canvassing in the 2016 UP Assembly elections.

But it’ll be naïve to think Nitish will stay put for good. At the moment he is in a cushy spot, all set to ride the 2019 speedboat to victory. But, if due to some miracle that does not happen, or the BJP’s breakneck speed at winning elections is halted, be prepared to hear Nitish sing the secularism mantra once again!

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