The Greece crisis will not have any direct impact on India, but some European companies may decide to hold back outbound investments till Greece’s future in the Euro Zone is determined, said capital market honchos from German lender Commerzbank AG.
In Germany, Greece’s biggest single creditor country, many experts expect a Grexit after the ‘No’ in the referendum.
The global markets are bound to rise in any case in the long run after a final decision, which will take a few more months, said Christoph Dolleschal, Head for Equity Research for Commerzbank, one of the top banks in Germany.
Dolleschal, who was part of Commerzbank’s capital markets team visiting India for a three-day roadshow, told BusinessLine here that he does not see any “financial contagion”— the spread of market disturbances from Greece to other countries — playing out.
“Currently, everybody is waiting for a solution. Basically, arrive at a solution so that they can continue with their day-to-day business”.
Interestingly, Dolleschal was of the view that the July 5 referendum decision will not be the final one.
“The negotiation paths will vary depending on the referendum. The negotiations are going to go on anyway. The point is markets want a clear solution and investors are getting impatient. I think the EU wants Greece to stay. The problem is a political one as much as it is a financial one,” he said.
Jens Voss, Global Head of Equity Capital Markets, Commerzbank, said that even in case of a Grexit, it remains to be seen how much and what type of debt needs to be written off. “We cannot simply say, they voted No, and so they are automatically exiting the European Union. That will, in real life, not happen and negotiations will continue independently from the outcome of the vote,” Voss said.
Voss does not see Greece crisis having any big impact on the global economy, particularly in the BRICS market.
Even in developed markets, including Europe, the Greece crisis is not as much of a big concern as it was when the situation started to unfold in 2010.
The concern back then was about a potential domino effect with the crisis extending to countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and France. Even if some concerns remain, the crisis seems to be better isolated today with quite a few reform steps having been achieved in the meantime.US FED
Dolleschal saw the US Fed interest rate hike as a bigger event for the global markets. “Greece is one-off and there will be a solution. An interest rate hike is not a one-off. It is obviously a part of your calculations as the interest rate is an important denominator for coming out with cost of equity calculations”.