The stake hike move by Essel opens up several scenarios.

Essel Group may acquire additional stake and take it to 25 per cent through market purchases and from institutions willing to exit with higher price offer. This will trigger an open offer wherein it would pitch for an additional 26 per cent stake, thereby gaining total management control in IVRCL.

Or, it will just buy additional stake and may take it up to 24.99 per cent. Then, it will stay as an investor in the company. However, this seems unlikely. The third scenario is take additional stake, get a Board slot and work with current promoters. That too is an unlikely situation.

Conversely, the existing promoters of IVRCL may convince institutional investors to back them, and stall the takeover. This is quite likely. Or, the promoters pre-empt Essel's bid and come up with an open offer. This could mean a big cash outgo.

>vrishi@thehindu.co.in

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