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The country’s exports in 2012-13 may fall below $300 billion, given a severe global slowdown, especially in merchandise trade, industry body Assocham said.
According to official data, while exports registered a small growth of 3.2 per cent in April, the situation worsened in May and June. Shipments, in value terms, decelerated by 4.16 per cent in May to $25.68 billion and by 5.45 per cent in June to $25 billion.
For the first quarter of April-June, exports were down by 1.7 per cent to $75.2 billion, from $76.5 billion in the same period last fiscal.
If the present global market scenario continues, the chamber forecast expects the total export billing in the range of $297-300 billion.
Exports, after deceleration during the global meltdown of 2008, had looked up in 2010-11 and 2011-12. The shipments had increased by 40.5 per cent in 2010-11 and by 21.3 per cent in the subsequent year.
Thus, any expectation of further growth in the current year has also to be seen in the context of high base at the start of 2012-13, according to the study.
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