4 global climate models say El Nino will end by April-end: Australian weather agency

Four of seven global climate models indicate that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return by April-end, while all models predict ENSO neutral conditions in May, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology  (BoM) said today.

This will mean that El Nino, which resulted in record warm weather across the globe since June 2023 and warm ocean temperatures, will dissipate. 

“International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May,” BoM said in its climate driver update.

55% chances of La Nina

The outlook has been seconded by Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a unit of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which said there is a 79 per cent chance of a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024. 

“Thereafter, La Niña is favoured in June-August, and chances increase through the September-November season,” the CPC said. It has said there is a 55 per cent chance of La Nina emerging during June-August. 

BoM reiterated private Australian weather firm Weatherzone’s projection that the significant warming of the global oceans over the past 50 years will impact future prediction of ENSO events, “if based solely on historical climate variability”.

“Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50 per cent of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50 per cent have been followed by La Niña,” the Australian weather agency said. 

It said El Nino persists, though a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. “Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024,” it said.

Atmospheric indicators were consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño, it said, adding that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. 

Signs of weakening

BoM pointed to a European Copernicus Climate Change Service study that  the annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.

“However, this does not mean that the 1.5 °C target referred to in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded as the magnitude of global warming is assessed using multi-year averages, and this is only one 12-month period,” the weather agency said.

The CPC, in its latest outlook, said since late December 2023, positive SST anomalies have weakened across most of the Pacific. “During the last 4 weeks, above-average sea surface temperatures  weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” it said, indicating the weakening of El Nino.

Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have weakened across the equatorial Pacific, remaining close to the surface, the CPC said to further boost its projection of the El Nino coming to an end.

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