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North-west India failed to witness any purposeful heating on Friday in the run-up to the monsoon.
Seasonal rains should break in less than a month over the south-west coast, but they need a temperature/pressure gradient to propel into the north of the country.
GRADIENT MISSING
Sustained heating of the north-west and lower pressure over land provides just that, but the process has been delayed for almost a month now.
Weather models had indicated a small window for heating to begin this week, but an incoming western disturbance appears to have closed it shut.
Weather-making western disturbances are passing low-pressure waves which set up thunderstorms, thunder squalls, dust storms, rains, thundershowers and even hail.
All these serve only to put a cap on the heating process, which normally sets up heat waves to severe heat waves over north-west, central, east and east-central India.
Nothing of the sort has happened till date, with overnight showers being recorded at a few places over north-west.
SHOWERS FORECAST
West and south-east Rajasthan; north-west and central Madhya Pradesh are expected to record showers until Tuesday next, according to a US forecaster.
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University indicated excess rains for north-west and central Madhya Pradesh.
Thunder squalls would scorch Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook.
Rain or thundershowers are expected to lash Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during next two days and increase thereafter.
Dust storms or thunderstorms would occur at one or two places over Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh during next two days.
The IRI indicated the possibility of heavy rains for north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Gangetic West Bengal.
‘EXPLOSIVE' IN EAST
This is of a piece with the ‘explosive' weather conditions forecast for the next two days for east India.
The IMD has warned of severe thunderstorm activity over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Orissa during this period.
Thunder squalls with wind speeds reaching 70 to 80 km/hr would singe Jharkhand, West Bengal and Orissa.
A trough of low pressure extending Jharkhand to south Tamil Nadu across Orissa and Andhra Pradesh is responsible for weather brewing in the peninsular region.
> vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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