Is there a turnaround in monsoon’s fortunes?

The ongoing rain spell and the one that is expected to follow next week are suddenly engaging the attention of meteorologists in terms of whether the monsoon is seeking to announce a turnaround.

No one is willing to come on record, but there is a quiet belief that this could indeed be the case in the light of review of enabling conditions latest in the Pacific by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

NO RESPONSE YET

The agency had said on Tuesday that the monsoon-unfriendly El Nino in the tropical Pacific had failed to elicit the required response from the atmosphere to grow as a full-fledged event.

This has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean which could undermine the strength of the El Nino that was earlier predicted to peak in August-September.

The outlook for August plotted by the ensemble mean of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia went as far as to suggest cooling of the Pacific to reach down to the level of a La Nina event.

La Nina is the exact reverse of El Nino and is generally supportive of the Indian monsoon, even leading to surplus rainfall occasionally.

IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT

Though refusing to draw an early conclusion, monsoon watchers attached enormous importance to the developments in the Pacific.

The Australian Bureau’s June outlook too had indicated that the >El Nino would begin to weaken towards August. The weakening trend had now come about, it said in its latest update.

“While the majority of climate models suggest El Nino remains likely, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Nino were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event,” the agency said.

But the agency also sounded a warning about the prospect of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole developing in the equatorial and East Indian Ocean.

INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE

The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to a seesawing of sea-surface temperatures in which the warming of the east (relative to west) is the negative phase, and vice versa.

During the negative phase, monsoon moisture would be forced to rain down over the East Indian Ocean, far to the south-southeast. This would adversely impact flows to the Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, > a rain-soaked Mumbai-Konkan continued to be lashed by furious monsoon flows from an incumbent low-pressure area over land even as a successor brewed in the Bay of Bengal.

India Met Department has officially joined the watch for a fresh ‘low’ taking shape over northwest Bay of Bengal by Sunday.

COMMENT NOW