Rain deficit shrinks but Kharif cover below normal

Despite monsoon deficit being cut to 34 per cent this week, planting of kharif coarse grains, pulses, oilseeds and cotton continue to be lower than the normal area under these crops.

The picture looks grim for kharif with the storage level in the 85 major reservoirs dropping below the 10-year average. Some 59 reservoirs have water level lower than 40 per cent of their capacity.

Coarse cereals According to the Ministry of Agriculture, coarse cereals have been sown on 48.43 lakh hectares (lh) against the normal 125.26 lh and 127.61 lh last year. Coverage of pulses is down to 21.58 lh (54.18 lh last year and 43.09 lh normal).

Oilseeds sowing has dropped to 38.07 lh against 136.56 last year (101.38 lh normal). Planting in cotton is down to 56 lh against 100.55 lh last year and the normal 92.55 lh.

Among other crops, planting in sugar and jute is near normal, while that of rice is lower by 25 lh.

“It is too premature to project or predict how the kharif crops production will turn out to be. But there are chances of the yield getting affected due to the lower rainfall or farmers opting for early maturing variety in crops such as soyabean,” said Govindbhai G Patel, CEO of G G Patel and Nikhil Research Company that advises edible oil traders.

“In pulses, it is unlikely that the lost area will be made up. But there are sufficient stocks, particularly imported consignments, that can come handy to check price rise,” said a source in the pulses trade.

Coverage of groundnut is lower at 15.21 lh against 26.87 lh. Normally, some 22 lh hectares are brought under the oilseed every kharif season. In Gujarat, the coverage is 5.42 lh against 15 lh.

Similarly, soyabean sowing is down by over 80 per cent compared with last year at 19.50 lh (103. 23 lh last year). The major fall in area is from soyabean hub of Madhya Pradesh where the coverage is down to 9.73 lh against 57.81 lh. In Maharashtra, too, the area is down at 4.33 lh against 30.34 lh.

Among coarse cereals, the area under jowar is down to one-seventh of last year’s acreage at 2.95 lh, while sowing in maize is only 40 per cent of last year’s coverage ( 27.33 lh versus 66.32 lh). In Gujarat, maize has been hardly sown, whereas during the same time last year, nearly 3 lh was covered. In Madhya Pradesh (2.03 lh versus 9.08 lh) and Maharashtra (0.18 lh versus 8 lh) also, maize planting has been severely hit.

At 13.71 lh, planting in bajra is down to a third of what it was last year.

Among pulses, the area under arhar or tur is down to 9.73 lh (22.22 lh) with the coverage in Madhya Pradesh being a meagre 89,000 hectares against 3.41 lh last year.

Maharashtra, MP Urad sowing is trailing at 3.62 lh (12.98 lh), taking a hit in Madhya Pradesh (0.62 lh versus 4.78 lh) and Maharashtra (0.32 lh versus 2.27 lh). Moong coverage has slipped to 4.76 lh from 13.78 lh last year.

In cotton, planting in Gujarat has slipped to 10.19 lh against 24.57 lh to 11.84 lh from 36.34 lh in Maharashtra.

A major reason for the lower coverage is that the monsoon is 77 per cent deficient in Gujarat and nearly 42 per cent in Madhya Pradesh. According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon deficit in central parts covering Gujarat and Maharashtra is 44 per cent.

Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh hold the key to a good kharif harvest in coarse cereals, pulses, cotton and oilseeds. The Central Water Commission data said storage level in Andhra Pradesh is 71 per cent lower than normal, while it is 61 per cent lower than normal in Tamil Nadu. The storage is also worrisome in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

“Cotton and castor may gain due to deficient and delayed monsoon. The acreage may rise in cotton but the yield could be lower,” said Patel.

Prospects for kharif crops can improve if they can get showers regularly from now till the monsoon’s withdrawal in the first half of September. “Showers at regular interval is crucial for oilseeds,” said Patel.

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