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Last year, Kapoor Singh of Riwasa village in Haryana’s Bhiwani district had reaped 2.5 tonnes of wheat from every hectare of his10-acre farm. This year, he has got only 1.5 tonnes.
“The crop faced adverse weather conditions in December and again in March. We have also faced pest (yellow rust) problems, resulting in a lower harvest,” Singh said over phone from his village.
Kapoor Singh is among many farmers in Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh who are reporting lower wheat yield this year.
“Compared with last year, the crop is 25 per cent down in Punjab. But, last year was an exceptional one, where everything went right with the crop,” said Raj Sud, a trader at Khanna market in Punjab.
“The crop is similarly lower in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh too,” he said.
procurement
“In Uttar Pradesh, the Food Corporation of India has been able to procure just 5 lakh tonnes-6 lakh tonnes for buffer stocks,” he said.
Though the Government cut its wheat production estimate to 93.62 million tonnes (mt) from initial estimates of nearly 95 mt, traders, exporters and the milling industry say that the output could be far lower.
Last year, production was a record 94.88 mt.
Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh contribute nearly 60 per cent to the total wheat output in the country.
Punjab’s production this year is estimated at 11.1 mt against 14.82 mt.
“Industry estimates put the production below 85 mt. There are others who have pegged it at 81 mt,” said a trade source, not wishing to be identified.
“We have heard farmers from Punjab telling us that their yield is at least 25 per cent lower this year,” said M.K. Dattaraj, former president of the Roller Flour Mills Federation of India.
Though the Food Corporation had initially fixed a target to procure 44 mt of wheat, it then cut to 33 mt.
However, with procurement almost coming to an end, it could end up procuring around 25 mt only.
“People are saying that farmers are holding on to wheat. Have our farmers become so resourceful to hold back wheat? Then, we need to review the Food Security Bill,” said the trade source.
According to Tejinder Narang, a consultant with a exporting firm, if procurement has dropped to around 25 mt, it only means a lower crop.
“The Centre should clear the air about wheat production,” he said. “The Government has been blaming the private trade and millers for the low procurement. But our procurement has been the usual quantity,” said Pramod Kumar, Director of Bangalore-based Sunil Agro Foods.
“For us, it is a hand-to-mouth situation since we have not procured over 60 per cent of requirement, thinking prices will drop. But things have taken a different turn,” said Pramod Kumar.
Currently, wheat for milling is quoting at Rs 1,590 a quintal in New Delhi’s Lawrence Road market, a benchmark for the country.
On the NCDEX, July contracts ruled at Rs 1,624.
“At Khanna, there is no arrival of wheat at all. No grower seems to have stock,” said Sud.
Though the Government had allowed export of an additional three million tonnes in April, hardly three lakh tonnes have been exported so far.
“That is because our prices are higher than global prices,” said Narang.
Though the highest bid for wheat at the tender floated by MMTC to sell 50,000 tonnes was $304 a tonne, it is considered high compared with wheat from the Black Sea region.
“Our wheat can become competitive if the rupee falls to Rs 60 against the dollar,” Narang said. The rupee slipped to Rs 56.76/77 against the dollar on Monday, a 11-month low.
Despite fears of lower production, the country could still be left with wheat stocks well above the buffer stock norms fixed by the Government. As on May 1, wheat stocks were over 12 mt against a buffer stock norm of four mt and a strategic reserve norm of 2.12 mt.
These stocks are kept for distribution through ration shops and various welfare measures of the Centre besides meeting any food emergency.
“We think the Government could soon come up with a lower production figure on wheat. But the sooner, it will be better,” said the trade source.
>subramani.mancombu@thehindu.co.in
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