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The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has estimated a shortfall of 7.3 million bags (60 kg) for the 2022-23 crop year that ended in September.
In its latest October report, ICO said the world coffee production that decreased 1.4 per cent to 168.5 million bags in 2021-22 is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent to 171.3 million bags in 2022-23.
The world coffee consumption increased by 4.2 per cent to 175.6 million bags in 2021-22. It is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent to 178.5 million bags in 2022-23. “As a result, under the current circumstances, the world coffee market is expected to undergo another year of deficit, with an estimated shortfall of 7.3 million bags in coffee year 2022- 23,” the ICO observed.
The apex coffee body said global green bean exports for coffee year 2022-23 were down 5.5 per cent to 110.81 million bags from 117.28 million bags in coffee year 2021-22. Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 12.1 per cent to 22.11 million bags in coffee year 2022-23 from 25.16 million bags in coffee year 2022-21.
Colombian Mild exports down
The exports of the Colombian Milds dropped by 11.2 per cent to 10.77 million bags in coffee year 2022/23 from 12.14 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The Green bean exports of the Robustas for coffee year 2022/23 were up 2.6 per cent to 43.76 million bags from 42.66 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.
ICO said the total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 5.7 per cent to 11.47 million bags in coffee year 2022-23 and the soluble coffee’s share of the total exports was 9.3 per cent, the same as in coffee year 2021-22. The roasted coffee exports were down 16 per cent to 0.71 million bags from 0.84 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.
South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased 11 per cent to 50.59 million bags, while the shipments from Africa were down 1.4 per cent to 13.53 million bags during 2022-23. Mexico and Central America’s exports were down 3.1 per cent to 15.3 million bags, while Asia and Oceania’s exports were down 0.9 per cent to 43.56 million bags in 2022-23.
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 151.94 US cents per pound in October, a 0.8 per cent decline from September 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 151.58 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 145.99 and 160.09 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 38.5 per cent to 2.02 US cents/lb. Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 13.7 per cent to 50.51 US cents/lb in October 2023. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP remained stable at 6.3 per cent between September and October 2023. The New York and London-certified stocks moved in the same downward direction.
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