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India’s coffee output for the new 2022-23 crop year, starting October, is heading for a new record, provided the weather supports the crop for the rest of calendar year.
The Coffee Board, in its early production estimates also known as post-blossom estimates, has pegged the 2022-23 crop at 3.93 lakh tonnes on favourable weather conditions during March-May, which aided the blossoms and crop setting this year.
The post-blossom estimates are higher by about 15 per cent over the final estimates of 3.42 lakh tonnes for the current 2021-22 crop year ended September. The output of Arabicas, the mild and premium variety, is seen 23 per cent higher at 1.169 lakh tonnes (lt) over the previous year’s 95,000 tonnes. Similarly, the output of Robustas is likely to be 12 per cent higher at 2.77 lakh tonnes over the previous year’s 2.47 lakh tonnes.
Good pre-monsoon showers
K G Jagadeesha, CEO and Secretary, Coffee Board, said the post-blossom estimates for 2022-23 is a record, but how much of it remains by the time the crop is harvested remains to be seen. While the key coffee-growing regions in Karnataka and Kerala have received good pre-blossom and blossom showers, there has been a deficit in the monsoon rainfall, so far in these States. “If there is a recovery in rainfall deficit, we may not have any problem. However, there has been no damage so far,” Jagadeesha said. Other producers like Tamil Nadu and Andhra have not faced any problems.
In a normal year, there would be a 10-15 per cent crop loss from the stage of post-blossom estimates to the actual harvest. “Even if we factor in a 10 per cent crop loss, it is still going to be a record output,” Jagadeesha said. India’s highest coffee output was 3.48 lakh tonnes during 2015-16.
Karnataka’s role
Much of the expected increase in next year’s output would be driven by Karnataka, the largest producing State which accounts for two-thirds of the country’s output. The 2022-23 crop is seen higher by 18 per cent in Karnataka, 11 per cent in Tamil Nadu and 6.3 per cent in Kerala.
In Karnataka, the post-blossom arabica output is pegged higher at 86,150 tonnes, an increase of 27 per cent over 68,025 tonnes this season. Similarly, Robusta output is seen higher at 1.99 lakh tonnes, an increase of 15 per cent over this season’s 1.736 lakh tonnes.
In Kodagu, the largest coffee-producing district in the country, the output of Arabicas is expected to go up to 22,275 tonnes, some 21 per cent higher compared with 18,325 tonnes in 2021-22. Similarly, Robusta output in Kodagu is projected higher at 1.227 lakh tonnes (1.05 lakh tonnes).
In Chikkamagaluru district, the arabica output is estimated 30 per cent more at 43,255 tonnes (33,100 tonnes), and robustas 12 per cent up at 52,955 tonnes (47,050 tonnes).
In Hassan district, the arabica crop will likely be 20,200 tonnes (16,600 tonnes) and robusta at 23,325 tonnes (21,350 tonnes).
In Kerala’s largest producing district of Wayanad, robusta output may rise to 62,425 tonnes (59,350 tonnes).
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