High maximum (day temperatures) may prevail over Central India, West Coast and Peninsular India for next 8-10 days with day to day variations, as a stubborn anticyclonic circulation sits in and lords it over southern half of the country. 

The anticyclone compresses air, increases pressure, and raises temperature as it is surrounded by dry continental winds . It has cooler north-westerly winds to its north wafting across Pakistan-Afghanistan border and covering North and East India. 

Monsoon tracks sun

Sun’s position in southern hemisphere has brought monsoon to Australia, after India and South-East Asia. Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), global band of low-pressure tracking the sun, is more or less entrenched over southern hemisphere. 

The ITCZ has ascending motion of air, clouds, moisture and therefore the monsoon, and will stay put over the current location until it begins seasonal trek and climbs north to bring back summer and later monsoon to northern hemisphere (Sri Lanka and India) by May/June. Monsoon represents north-westerly flows over Australia and south-westerly over Sri Lanka and India. 

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, in wavy lines in pink) positions in July (up) and January (down), indicating regions of active monsoon around the globe.

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, in wavy lines in pink) positions in July (up) and January (down), indicating regions of active monsoon around the globe. | Photo Credit: Wikipedia

Stormy Southern Ocean

On Tuesday, the ITCZ featured four storms in the southern hemisphere, including cyclone Vince (near Madagascar); tropical storm Taliah (open Indian Ocean); and numbered tropical storms Seventeen (off North-West Australia) and Sixteen (East of Australia). 

Back home, day and night temperatures will tend to shoot up or trend down based on ambient atmospheric conditions including presence of clouds. Over North, North-West and East India, moisture and cloud cover heralded by western disturbances may help bring down maximum (day) temperatures and perk up minimum (night temperatures). 

Cloudless skies

Cloudless skies over Peninsular India may bring bright and sunny weather, and force subsidence of air, leading to higher temperatures and pressure. India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects minimum (night) temperatures to fall over North-West India during next three days while no significant change is indicated thereafter. No major change in night temperature is expected over Central India either through Wednesday, but they may fall by 2-4℃ thereafter. 

Almost similar climes are predicted for East India, but night temperature likely over East India for next two days may fall by 2-3℃ thereafter. Night temperatures may fall by 2-3℃ over Maharashtra region during next three days, and no major change thereafter. Highest day temperature over the plains of 36.6°C was reported at Karwar (Coastal Karnataka) through Monday. 

On Tuesday morning, numerical models of IMD showed anticyclone with cloudless sunny climes and high mercury perched over from across West Coast (south of Mumbai to Coastal Karnataka); adjoining Maharashtra; Vidarbha; Telangana; Rayalaseema; Coastal Andhra Pradesh; North Interior Karnataka; and North Tamil Nadu (including Chennai). 

It may hang over the region until Friday and briefly exit its perch before returning by midweek next week. The interregnum will be marked by entry and exit of cool western disturbances towards north of the country. Mostly feeble disturbances (and no active ones) entering the region may not bring clouds, associated moisture and rain beyond the hills to aid standing Rabi crops.

 

Published on February 11, 2025