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The Pacific Ocean has begun to warm up and its sea surface temperature is rising. That portends the setting in of El Nino later this year. The phenomenon is aided by the recent burst of westerly winds over the far-western Pacific.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, this burst is the strongest since 2009, when El Nino developed the last time.
In its latest update on Tuesday, the Bureau said that weather conditions are currently neutral with no possibility of an El Nino or La Nina.
“However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the austral winter,” it said.
Australian winter begins in June and going by forecasts, El Nino could set in around July.
The sub-surface of the Pacific Ocean has warmed substantially over the last few weeks and this is likely to result in a warming of the sea surface in the coming months, it said.
On the other hand, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US on Monday said that in the last four weeks, the sea surface temperatures were above average in the western Pacific. The Centre has given a 50 per cent chance of El Nino occurring after the middle of June.
On Monday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said it is likely that El Nino conditions will develop after mid-June.
El Nino, associated with drought in the Asia-Pacific region particularly South-East Asia and Australia, is caused by rising water temperature by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius in the Pacific Ocean. In turn, it leads to rise in surface pressure in the Indian Ocean. It also results in floods in South America. In 2009, the El Nino resulted in India receiving over 20 per cent deficient rainfall.
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