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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the well-marked low-pressure area over East Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal has intensified into a pre-monsoon depression.
It was located at about 1,140 kilometres (km) East-South-East of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1,490 km South-East of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 1,760 km South-South-East of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh) at 8.30 am on Friday.
DEVELOPING CYCLONE
The Department of Meteorology of nearby Sri Lanka had classified the system as a depression earlier in the morning. By noon, it located the system to 950 km to the South-East of Potuvil.
It said that the system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and then into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours (Saturday) and move northwestwards along and off the East Coast of Sri Lanka.
The IMD also agrees with this view, saying that the depression would intensify further into a deep depression by Saturday and into a cyclonic Storm by the same evening/night.
It would continue to move northwestwards off Sri Lanka coast during next four days and reach near the North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coast by Tuesday (April 30).
The IMD also expects it to intensify to at least one round into a severe cyclone by Monday and retain the status on Tuesday, while being away from both the Tamil Nadu and Andhra coasts.
HIGH WINDS ALERT
IMD has issued a high wind alert, and warned of 'rough' to 'high seas' in the adjoining Bay of Bengal. Fishermen have been advised not to venture out of Sri Lanka, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts on Monday and Tuesday.
Earlier in the morning, major global models seemed to agree that a powerful tropical cyclone may be evolving over the South-West Bay but most settled for a track close to the Tamil Nadu coast, but not crossing it.
The IMD does not any more persist with a 'direct hit' on the Tamil Nadu coast; it does not commit to anything more than a track 'towards the North Tamil Nadu coast.'
A number of international models are converging on the view that the cyclone could come close to Chennai, but skip it and proceed towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Some of them suggested a track all along the East Coast starting off the Chennai coast but going right up to Brahmapur in Odisha, from where it would re-enter the Bay and move towards Bangladesh/Myanmar.
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