Comments
A cyclonic circulation has shot up in the upper air over south-west Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka coast, which could help pull in the North-East monsoon over peninsular India.
A trough of lower pressure (not amounting low-pressure area) has formed upstream over the Andaman Sea, confirming the build-up.
Cyclonic whirlAdditionally, a land-based cyclonic circulation has been persisting over interior Tamil Nadu and Karnataka over the past couple of days.
These have prompted India Met Department to forecast heavy rainfall for coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala during the next three days.
Satellite imagery on Thursday afternoon showed convective (rain-causing) clouds rising above Kerala, Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and south-east Arabian Sea. An extended outlook for the four days until October 23 said that rain or thundershowers would continue to break out at many places over South.
Exit processIn this manner, the platform is being set for the north-easterly to easterly winds gather in strength to precipitate North-East monsoon during the usual October 15-20 timeline.
The exit of South-West monsoon is also expected to be completed by that time, though the withdrawal line remained stuck in east India due to lingering moisture from erstwhile cyclone Hudhud.
During the last 24 hours, moderate to heavy rainfall lashed most places in Kerala. Many places in Tamil Nadu also witnessed rain or thundershowers. Meanwhile, an outlook by the US Climate Prediction Centre did not show any major pick up in rainfall over south India during the week beginning Thursday.
US forecastIn fact, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of adjoining Chennai may not get their normal quota of showers during this week. Excess rain is shown to concentrate over Sri Lanka to the south.
The picture doesn’t change drastically the following week. The rains would be in deficit not just over Chennai but also entire peninsula except interior Tamil Nadu, central and northern Kerala. According to the US forecaster, this phase would last until October 29. South India’s loss will be Sri Lanka’s gain, in terms of excess rain being forecast for the island nation.
To the north of India, transiting western disturbances are forecast to drop some rain during the next week, according to the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.