Very heavy rain lashes Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has extended by little more than a day the likely formation of a ‘defining’ low-pressure area over the North Andaman Sea, which is expected to have implications not just for India’s East Coast in terms of heavy rainfall but also for the onset of the North-East monsoon over the South Peninsula.

Normally, the extension of timeline for genesis of a ‘low’ is taken to signal weakening of confidence in the eventuality, but it may not necessarily be the case here since global peer models have maintained the outlook for a ‘low’. The monsoon transition from South-West to North-East also supports the prognosis with associated reduction in wind shear, which aids the formation of a ‘low’ and its intensification.

Stormy South China Sea

Added to this is storminess in and active state of the upstream South China Sea/West Pacific with likely cascading impact on the Bay of Bengal. The seasonal easterly winds will likely cause any remnant to drift in downstream and set up the ‘low’ in the Bay.

The IMD expects the system to become ‘more marked’ in the Bay and move west-northwestwards towards the South Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coasts during the subsequent 4-5 days. But it may not likely go to the extent of tossing up a storm/cyclone just yet as global models have been suggesting.

Bay storm outlook

What it would possibly do is prepare the ground for a storm to build in the Bay a few days later, according to projections by the IMD’s numerical weather prediction model. This will need to be tracked and verified at the ground level. A fortnightly prediction by the US Climate Prediction Centre too supports this outlook.

Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending on Sunday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall (in cm) being recorded at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh while Ito was heavy at isolated places over Telangana, Konkan, Goa, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, East Gujarat, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Coastal and North interior Karnataka.

The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands with isolated thunder squalls (wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr) and heavy to very heavy falls during the next 4-5 days as the ‘low’ builds.

Circulation in Arabian Sea

This is even as another cyclonic circulation lies over East-Central Arabian Sea and is expected to persist during the next 3-4 days. It will bring fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain  over the Southern Peninsula for the next five days and over Maharashtra during the next 2-3 days.

Isolated heavy falls have been forecast over Tamil Nadu, South interior Karnataka and Kerala during the next five days prompting the local administration to declare varied State of alerts to the public.

Heavy to very heavy rain

Almost similar weather is predicted over Coastal and North interior Karnataka for four days from Monday; over Rayalaseema during next three days; over Konkan and Goa on Sunday and Monday; and over Madhya Maharashtra Sunday and Monday. Isolated very heavy rainfall has been warned of over Kerala and Mahe as waves of heavy rain from the Arabian Sea approach the coast.

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